I agree that better understanding of progress and which problems are more or less challenging is valuable, but it seems clear that timelines get fare more attention than needed in places where they aren’t decision relevant.
I thought that David meant “intellectual areas” as opposed to physical/digital venues. Seems like lots of discussion in those venues isn’t particularly decision-relevant, and timelines aren’t really an unusually decision-irrelevant case.
Yeah, I was mostly thinking about policy—if we’re facing 90% unemployment, or existential risk, and need policy solutions, the difference between 5 and 7 years is immaterial. (There are important political differences, but the needed policies are identical.)
I agree that better understanding of progress and which problems are more or less challenging is valuable, but it seems clear that timelines get fare more attention than needed in places where they aren’t decision relevant.
In what places do timelines get a lot of attention despite not being very decision-relevant?
AI Safety Twitter, this Forum, Bay Area parties…
I thought that David meant “intellectual areas” as opposed to physical/digital venues. Seems like lots of discussion in those venues isn’t particularly decision-relevant, and timelines aren’t really an unusually decision-irrelevant case.
I thought you were taking issue with the claim they were overdiscussed and asking where.
The areas where timelines are overdiscussed are numerous. Policy and technical safety career advice are the biggest ime.
Yeah, I was mostly thinking about policy—if we’re facing 90% unemployment, or existential risk, and need policy solutions, the difference between 5 and 7 years is immaterial. (There are important political differences, but the needed policies are identical.)