I see what you mean, though you will find that scientific experts often end up endorsing probabilities like these. They model the situation, run the calculation and end up with 10^-12 and then say the probability is 10^-12. You are right that if you knew the experts were Bayesian and calibrated and aware of all the ways the model or calculation could be flawed, and had a good dose of humility, then you could read more into such small claimed probabilities — i.e. that they must have a mass of evidence they have not yet shared. But we are very rarely in a situation like that. Averaging a selection of Metaculus forecasters may be close, but is quite a special case when you think more broadly about the question of how to aggregate expert predictions.
They model the situation, run the calculation and end up with 10^-12 and then say the probability is 10^-12.
Consider that if you’re aggregating expert predictions, you might be generating probabilities too soon. Instead you could for instance interview the subject-matter experts, make the transcript available to expert forecasters, and then aggregate the probabilities of the latter. This might produce more accurate probabilities.
I see what you mean, though you will find that scientific experts often end up endorsing probabilities like these. They model the situation, run the calculation and end up with 10^-12 and then say the probability is 10^-12. You are right that if you knew the experts were Bayesian and calibrated and aware of all the ways the model or calculation could be flawed, and had a good dose of humility, then you could read more into such small claimed probabilities — i.e. that they must have a mass of evidence they have not yet shared. But we are very rarely in a situation like that. Averaging a selection of Metaculus forecasters may be close, but is quite a special case when you think more broadly about the question of how to aggregate expert predictions.
Consider that if you’re aggregating expert predictions, you might be generating probabilities too soon. Instead you could for instance interview the subject-matter experts, make the transcript available to expert forecasters, and then aggregate the probabilities of the latter. This might produce more accurate probabilities.