What about future crucial considerations that Andrew hasn’t yet discovered? Can he make any statements about them? One way to do so would be to model unknown unknowns (UUs) as being sampled from some probability distribution P: UUi ~ P for all i. The distribution of UUs so far was {3, −5, −2, 10, −1}. The sample mean is 1, and the standard error is 2.6. The standard error is big enough that Andrew can’t have much confidence about future UUs, though the sample mean very weakly suggests future UUs are more likely on average to be positive than negative.
A bit late but it might be this post:
Thanks! Definitely not too late, I’m often looking for this particular cite.