I really don’t have strong arguments here. I guess partly from experience working on an automated trading system (i.e. actually trying to automate something), partly from seeing Robin Hanson arguing that automation has just been continuing at a steady pace for a long time (or something like that; possible I’m completely misremembering this). Partly from guessing that other people can be a bit naive here.
This very long lesswrong comment thread has some relevant discussion. Maybe I’m saying I kind of lean towards more of the side that user ‘julianjm’ is arguing for.
Robin Hanson argues in Age of Em that annualized growth rates will reach over 400,000% as a result of automation of human labor with full substitutes (e.g. through brain emulations)! He’s a weird citation for thinking the same technology can’t manage 20% growth.
”I really don’t have strong arguments here. I guess partly from experience working on an automated trading system (i.e. actually trying to automate something)”
This and the usual economist arguments against fast AGI growth seem to be more about denying the premise of ever succeeding at AGI/automating human substitute minds (by extrapolation from a world where we have not yet built human substitutes to conclude they won’t be produced in the future), rather than addressing the growth that can then be enabled by the resulting AI.
I really don’t have strong arguments here. I guess partly from experience working on an automated trading system (i.e. actually trying to automate something), partly from seeing Robin Hanson arguing that automation has just been continuing at a steady pace for a long time (or something like that; possible I’m completely misremembering this). Partly from guessing that other people can be a bit naive here.
This very long lesswrong comment thread has some relevant discussion. Maybe I’m saying I kind of lean towards more of the side that user ‘julianjm’ is arguing for.
Robin Hanson argues in Age of Em that annualized growth rates will reach over 400,000% as a result of automation of human labor with full substitutes (e.g. through brain emulations)! He’s a weird citation for thinking the same technology can’t manage 20% growth.
”I really don’t have strong arguments here. I guess partly from experience working on an automated trading system (i.e. actually trying to automate something)”
This and the usual economist arguments against fast AGI growth seem to be more about denying the premise of ever succeeding at AGI/automating human substitute minds (by extrapolation from a world where we have not yet built human substitutes to conclude they won’t be produced in the future), rather than addressing the growth that can then be enabled by the resulting AI.