I should also mention that Toby Ord’s 1⁄6 (17ish%) figure is for the chance of extinction this century, which isn’t made totally clear in the video (although I appreciate not much can be done about that)!
Updated the description with “Clarification: Toby Ord estimates that the chance of human extinction this century (and not in general) is around 1⁄6, which is 16.66...%”
Actually, that’s his estimate of existential catastrophe this century, which includes both extinction and unrecoverable collapse or unrecoverable dystopia. (I seem to recall that Ord also happens to think extinction is substantially more likely this century than the other two types of existential catastrophe, but I can’t remember for sure, and in any case his 1⁄6 estimate is stated as being about existential catastrophe.)
Maybe you could say: “Clarification: Toby Ord estimates that the chance of an existential catastrophe (not just extinction) this century (not across all time) is around 1⁄6; his estimate for extinction only might be lower, and his estimate across all time is higher. For more on the concept of existential catastrophe, see https://www.existential-risk.org/concept.pdf″
Copy-pasted your text and included both links with an “and”. Also… any feedback on the video? This post’s performance seems a little disappointing to me, as always.
Thanks! Just updated the link :)
I should also mention that Toby Ord’s 1⁄6 (17ish%) figure is for the chance of extinction this century, which isn’t made totally clear in the video (although I appreciate not much can be done about that)!
Updated the description with “Clarification: Toby Ord estimates that the chance of human extinction this century (and not in general) is around 1⁄6, which is 16.66...%”
Actually, that’s his estimate of existential catastrophe this century, which includes both extinction and unrecoverable collapse or unrecoverable dystopia. (I seem to recall that Ord also happens to think extinction is substantially more likely this century than the other two types of existential catastrophe, but I can’t remember for sure, and in any case his 1⁄6 estimate is stated as being about existential catastrophe.)
Maybe you could say: “Clarification: Toby Ord estimates that the chance of an existential catastrophe (not just extinction) this century (not across all time) is around 1⁄6; his estimate for extinction only might be lower, and his estimate across all time is higher. For more on the concept of existential catastrophe, see https://www.existential-risk.org/concept.pdf″
(Or you could use a more accessible link, e.g. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/existential-catastrophe-1 )
Copy-pasted your text and included both links with an “and”. Also… any feedback on the video? This post’s performance seems a little disappointing to me, as always.
Edit: oh I just see now that you replied above
(Thanks for being receptive to and acting on this and Fin’s feedback!)
Thanks, good catch! Possibly should have read over my reply...
Thanks for making both those updates :)