I haven’t digested the full paper yet, but based on the summary pasted below, this is precisely the claim I was trying to argue for in the “Against Anthropic Shadow” post of mine that you have linked.
It looks like this claim has been fleshed out in a lot more detail here though, and I’m looking forward to reading it properly!
In the post you linked I also went on quite a long digression trying to figure out if it was possible to rescue Anthropic Shadow by appealing to the fact that there might be large numbers of other worlds containing life (this plausibly weakens the strength of evidence provided by A, which may then stop the cancellation in C). I decided it technically was possible, but only if you take a strange approach to anthropic reasoning, with a strange and difficult-to-define observer reference class.
Possibly focusing so much on this digression was a mistake though, since the summary above is really pointing to the important flaw in the original argument!
I haven’t digested the full paper yet, but based on the summary pasted below, this is precisely the claim I was trying to argue for in the “Against Anthropic Shadow” post of mine that you have linked.
It looks like this claim has been fleshed out in a lot more detail here though, and I’m looking forward to reading it properly!
In the post you linked I also went on quite a long digression trying to figure out if it was possible to rescue Anthropic Shadow by appealing to the fact that there might be large numbers of other worlds containing life (this plausibly weakens the strength of evidence provided by A, which may then stop the cancellation in C). I decided it technically was possible, but only if you take a strange approach to anthropic reasoning, with a strange and difficult-to-define observer reference class.
Possibly focusing so much on this digression was a mistake though, since the summary above is really pointing to the important flaw in the original argument!
I can’t believe Toby’s initial post only had 28 Karma, it’s excellent, crazytown....