They both are a lot clearer to me (in-particular, they both make their assumptions about anthropic reasoning explicit), though that might just be a preference for the LessWrong/EA Forum style instead of academic philosophy.
I haven’t digested the full paper yet, but based on the summary pasted below, this is precisely the claim I was trying to argue for in the “Against Anthropic Shadow” post of mine that you have linked.
It looks like this claim has been fleshed out in a lot more detail here though, and I’m looking forward to reading it properly!
In the post you linked I also went on quite a long digression trying to figure out if it was possible to rescue Anthropic Shadow by appealing to the fact that there might be large numbers of other worlds containing life (this plausibly weakens the strength of evidence provided by A, which may then stop the cancellation in C). I decided it technically was possible, but only if you take a strange approach to anthropic reasoning, with a strange and difficult-to-define observer reference class.
Possibly focusing so much on this digression was a mistake though, since the summary above is really pointing to the important flaw in the original argument!
I think a proper account of this wants to explain why there appear to be arguments which argue for an anthropic shadow effect, and why there appear to be arguments which argue against an anthropic shadow effect, and how to reconcile them.
In my view, Teru Thomas’s paper is the first piece which succeeds in doing that.
(My historical position is like “I always found anthropic shadow arguments fishy, but didn’t bottom that concern out”. I found Toby Crisford’s post helpful in highlighting what might be a reason not to expect anthropic shadow effects, but it left things feeling gnarly so I wasn’t confident in it—again, without investing a great deal of time in trying to straighten it out. I missed Jessica Taylor’s post, but looking at it now I think I would have felt similarly to Toby Crisford’s analysis.)
Is this article different than these other existing critiques of Anthropic shadow arguments?
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/A47EWTS6oBKLqxBpw/against-anthropic-shadow
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EScmxJAHeJY5cjzAj/ssa-rejects-anthropic-shadow-too
They both are a lot clearer to me (in-particular, they both make their assumptions about anthropic reasoning explicit), though that might just be a preference for the LessWrong/EA Forum style instead of academic philosophy.
I haven’t digested the full paper yet, but based on the summary pasted below, this is precisely the claim I was trying to argue for in the “Against Anthropic Shadow” post of mine that you have linked.
It looks like this claim has been fleshed out in a lot more detail here though, and I’m looking forward to reading it properly!
In the post you linked I also went on quite a long digression trying to figure out if it was possible to rescue Anthropic Shadow by appealing to the fact that there might be large numbers of other worlds containing life (this plausibly weakens the strength of evidence provided by A, which may then stop the cancellation in C). I decided it technically was possible, but only if you take a strange approach to anthropic reasoning, with a strange and difficult-to-define observer reference class.
Possibly focusing so much on this digression was a mistake though, since the summary above is really pointing to the important flaw in the original argument!
I can’t believe Toby’s initial post only had 28 Karma, it’s excellent, crazytown....
I think a proper account of this wants to explain why there appear to be arguments which argue for an anthropic shadow effect, and why there appear to be arguments which argue against an anthropic shadow effect, and how to reconcile them.
In my view, Teru Thomas’s paper is the first piece which succeeds in doing that.
(My historical position is like “I always found anthropic shadow arguments fishy, but didn’t bottom that concern out”. I found Toby Crisford’s post helpful in highlighting what might be a reason not to expect anthropic shadow effects, but it left things feeling gnarly so I wasn’t confident in it—again, without investing a great deal of time in trying to straighten it out. I missed Jessica Taylor’s post, but looking at it now I think I would have felt similarly to Toby Crisford’s analysis.)