I think a proper account of this wants to explain why there appear to be arguments which argue for an anthropic shadow effect, and why there appear to be arguments which argue against an anthropic shadow effect, and how to reconcile them.
In my view, Teru Thomas’s paper is the first piece which succeeds in doing that.
(My historical position is like “I always found anthropic shadow arguments fishy, but didn’t bottom that concern out”. I found Toby Crisford’s post helpful in highlighting what might be a reason not to expect anthropic shadow effects, but it left things feeling gnarly so I wasn’t confident in it—again, without investing a great deal of time in trying to straighten it out. I missed Jessica Taylor’s post, but looking at it now I think I would have felt similarly to Toby Crisford’s analysis.)
I think a proper account of this wants to explain why there appear to be arguments which argue for an anthropic shadow effect, and why there appear to be arguments which argue against an anthropic shadow effect, and how to reconcile them.
In my view, Teru Thomas’s paper is the first piece which succeeds in doing that.
(My historical position is like “I always found anthropic shadow arguments fishy, but didn’t bottom that concern out”. I found Toby Crisford’s post helpful in highlighting what might be a reason not to expect anthropic shadow effects, but it left things feeling gnarly so I wasn’t confident in it—again, without investing a great deal of time in trying to straighten it out. I missed Jessica Taylor’s post, but looking at it now I think I would have felt similarly to Toby Crisford’s analysis.)