As I said, those bullet points were a memory of a draft so I donāt have the hard data to share on hand. But when dealing with social movements itās always going to be somewhat vibesyādata will necessarily be observational and we canāt travel back in time and run RCTs on whether SBF commits fraud or not. And the case studies do show that declines can go on for a very long time post major crisis. Itās rare for movements to disappear overnight (The Levellers come closest of all the cases I found to that)
Fwiw I think that the general evidence does point to āEA is in declineā broadly understood, and that should be considered the null hypothesis at this point. Iād feel pretty gaslit if someone said EA was going swimmingly and unaffected by the tribulations of the last couple of years, perhaps less so if they think thereās been a bounce back after an initial decline but, you know, Iād want to see the data for that.
But as I said, itās really not the (main) point of the post! Iād love to add my points to a post where someone did try and do a deep dive into that question.
Iād feel pretty gaslit if someone said EA was going swimmingly and unaffected by the tribulations of the last couple of years, perhaps less so if they think thereās been a bounce back after an initial decline but, you know, Iād want to see the data for that.
No worries Ollie, thanks for the feedback :)
As I said, those bullet points were a memory of a draft so I donāt have the hard data to share on hand. But when dealing with social movements itās always going to be somewhat vibesyādata will necessarily be observational and we canāt travel back in time and run RCTs on whether SBF commits fraud or not. And the case studies do show that declines can go on for a very long time post major crisis. Itās rare for movements to disappear overnight (The Levellers come closest of all the cases I found to that)
Fwiw I think that the general evidence does point to āEA is in declineā broadly understood, and that should be considered the null hypothesis at this point. Iād feel pretty gaslit if someone said EA was going swimmingly and unaffected by the tribulations of the last couple of years, perhaps less so if they think thereās been a bounce back after an initial decline but, you know, Iād want to see the data for that.
But as I said, itās really not the (main) point of the post! Iād love to add my points to a post where someone did try and do a deep dive into that question.
I canāt seem to find it now, but I think someone calculated that funding to EA was higher in 2023 and 2024 than any year except 2022.
I agree with this fwiw, that seems fair