TL;DR: Manifold is hosting a conference! 🥳 Chat with the Manifold team, special guests like Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more at our inaugural in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community.
Forecasting and prediction markets are effective ways of improving our judgement and decision-making — most people in the Effective Altruism and LessWrong communities will feel right at home at Manifest.
Here are extra reasons to come:
you think forecasting & prediction markets are impactful/​fun/​cool/​rational/​intriguing/​etc
you want to vibe with other forecasting nerds
you want to engage & network with the forecasting community (find jobs/​recruit hires/​see what’s out there)
you want to meet & chat with the Manifold team and our special guests (including Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more!)
you want enjoy the gorgeous Rose Garden Inn
…or if you like memes?
A day at Manifest
Everything’s optional. There will always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently, but this is an example of what your day at Manifest might look like:
10-11 — Opening session
11-12 — Fireside chat: Robin Hanson
12-1 — Lunch & mingling
1-2 — Estimathon: fermi estimation with prizes and steep competition!
2-3 — Speed friending: a few chats with other friendly, ambitious forecasting nerds :)
Announcing Manifest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)
Forecasting Festival hosted by Manifold
TL;DR: Manifold is hosting a conference! 🥳 Chat with the Manifold team, special guests like Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more at our inaugural in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community.
More info & buy tickets: manifestconference.net
WHEN: Sept 22-24
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
WHO: Everyone in the forecasting, EA, and LW communities. If you’re reading this, you’re invited!
Join the Discord here :)
Why should I come?
Forecasting and prediction markets are effective ways of improving our judgement and decision-making — most people in the Effective Altruism and LessWrong communities will feel right at home at Manifest.
Here are extra reasons to come:
you think forecasting & prediction markets are impactful/​fun/​cool/​rational/​intriguing/​etc
you want to vibe with other forecasting nerds
you want to engage & network with the forecasting community (find jobs/​recruit hires/​see what’s out there)
you want to meet & chat with the Manifold team and our special guests (including Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more!)
you want enjoy the gorgeous Rose Garden Inn
…or if you like memes?
A day at Manifest
Everything’s optional. There will always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently, but this is an example of what your day at Manifest might look like:
10-11 — Opening session
11-12 — Fireside chat: Robin Hanson
12-1 — Lunch & mingling
1-2 — Estimathon: fermi estimation with prizes and steep competition!
2-3 — Speed friending: a few chats with other friendly, ambitious forecasting nerds :)
3-4 — Break: relax, vibe, unwind, chill, destress, etc
4-5 — Panel: Forecasting Founders (hear from Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Insight Predictions, and more!)
5-6 — Games & markets: chess, poker, and prediction markets!
6-7 — Dinner & mingling
7-8 — Workshop: How to Write Good Forecasting Questions
8-12 — Murder She Bet: a murder mystery + a low-tech prediction market = fun!
Who else is coming?
The rest of the forecasting & prediction market community. Current speakers & special guests include:
The whole Manifold team, including co-founders Austin Chen and Stephen & James Grugett
Robin Hanson (economist & professor)
Shayne Coplan (CEO of Polymarket)
Patrick McKenzie (writer, Advisor at Stripe)
Dylan Matthews (Head writer at Future Perfect, Vox)
Destiny (streamer & political streamer)
Aella (sex researcher & writer)
Josh Rosenberg (CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute)
Rational Animations (Rationality Youtuber)
Byrne Hobart (Author of The Diff)
Cate Hall (CEO of Alvea)
Robert Miles (AI safety researcher & writer)
…and more to be announced!
For the most up-to-date info, see manifestconference.net/​speakers :)
Where can I buy tickets?
Buy tickets & check the most up-to-date info on the Manifest website! Tickets are free for students and employees of forecasting organizations.