RSS

Pre­dic­tion markets

TagLast edit: 14 Jul 2022 20:48 UTC by Leo

Prediction markets (also known as information markets and idea futures) are markets for trading contracts about future events.

Further reading

Hanson, Robin (1995) Could gambling save science? Encouraging an honest consensus, Social Epistemology, vol. 9, pp. 3–33.

Lagerros, Jacob & Nuño Sempere (2021) Database of prediction markets, Google Sheets.

Sempere, Nuño, Misha Yagudin & Eli Lifland (2021) Prediction markets in the corporate setting, Effective Altruism Forum, December 31.

Related entries

improving institutional decision-making | model uncertainty | forecasting | value of information | Robin Hanson

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets in The Cor­po­rate Setting

NunoSempere31 Dec 2021 17:10 UTC
87 points
15 comments33 min readEA link

Sum­mary and Take­aways: Han­son’s “Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?”

Lizka25 Aug 2021 0:43 UTC
38 points
12 comments14 min readEA link

Com­par­ing top fore­cast­ers and do­main experts

Gavin6 Mar 2022 20:43 UTC
205 points
40 comments3 min readEA link

NYT on the Man­i­fest fore­cast­ing conference

Austin9 Oct 2023 21:40 UTC
27 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.nytimes.com)

Ad­ja­cent News—Ar­ti­cles driven by fore­cast­ing platforms

Lucas Kohorst18 Oct 2024 13:19 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Don’t In­ter­pret Pre­dic­tion Mar­ket Prices as Probabilities

bob5 May 2023 20:23 UTC
79 points
16 comments4 min readEA link

Is­sues with Futarchy

Lizka7 Oct 2021 17:24 UTC
63 points
8 comments25 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Look­ing back at 2021.

NunoSempere27 Jan 2022 20:14 UTC
60 points
8 comments9 min readEA link
(forecasting.substack.com)

An at­tempt to pro­mote pre­dic­tion markets

Timothy_Liptrot10 May 2022 14:19 UTC
7 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Why pre­dic­tion mar­kets aren’t popular

Nick Whitaker20 May 2024 14:21 UTC
67 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(worksinprogress.co)

Man­i­fold for Good: Bet on the fu­ture, for charity

Austin2 May 2022 18:06 UTC
35 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Get your tick­ets to Man­i­fest 2024 by May 13th!

Saul Munn3 May 2024 23:57 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

I made a news site based on pre­dic­tion markets

vandemonian5 Jun 2023 18:33 UTC
226 points
14 comments4 min readEA link

Pre­dict which posts will win the Crit­i­cism and Red Team­ing Con­test!

Austin27 Sep 2022 22:46 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

Pre­dic­tion mar­ket does not im­ply causation

Lizka10 Oct 2022 20:37 UTC
29 points
19 comments3 min readEA link
(dynomight.net)

Event-driven mis­sion cor­re­lated in­vest­ing and the 2020 US election

jh14 Jun 2021 15:06 UTC
48 points
11 comments4 min readEA link

Com­par­ing Su­perfore­cast­ing and the In­tel­li­gence Com­mu­nity Pre­dic­tion Market

LuisEUrtubey12 Apr 2022 9:24 UTC
29 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Pro­ject: A web plat­form for crowd­sourc­ing im­pact es­ti­mates of in­ter­ven­tions.

Max Clarke22 Apr 2022 6:54 UTC
41 points
18 comments5 min readEA link

[Fic­tion] Im­proved Gover­nance on the Crit­i­cal Path to AI Align­ment by 2045.

Jackson Wagner18 May 2022 15:50 UTC
20 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Quick pro­posal: De­ci­sion mar­ket re­grantor us­ing man­i­fund (please im­prove)

Nathan Young9 Jul 2023 12:49 UTC
23 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Ac­cu­racy Agree­ments: A Flex­ible Alter­na­tive to Pre­dic­tion Markets

Ozzie Gooen20 Apr 2023 3:09 UTC
37 points
5 comments4 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Pre­dic­tion mar­kets cov­ered in the NYT pod­cast “Hard Fork”

Austin13 Oct 2023 18:43 UTC
24 points
1 comment9 min readEA link
(www.nytimes.com)

Wild an­i­mal welfare? Stable to­tal­i­tar­i­anism? Pre­dict which new EA cause area will go main­stream!

Jackson Wagner11 Mar 2024 14:27 UTC
48 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

View and Bet in Man­i­fold pre­dic­tion mar­kets on EA Forum

Sinclair Chen24 May 2022 17:05 UTC
67 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing for Good: Char­ity Pre­dic­tion Markets

Austin22 Mar 2022 17:44 UTC
42 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Come to Man­i­fest 2024 (June 7-9 in Berkeley)

Saul Munn27 Mar 2024 21:30 UTC
15 points
8 comments4 min readEA link
(news.manifold.markets)

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets for Science

vaniver2 Jan 2023 17:55 UTC
14 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Futarchy and prefer­ences over variance

Nicholas Decker29 Jun 2024 2:36 UTC
2 points
2 comments5 min readEA link
(nicholasdecker.substack.com)

Cu­rated blind auc­tion pre­dic­tion mar­kets and a rep­u­ta­tion sys­tem as an al­ter­na­tive to ed­i­to­rial re­view in news pub­li­ca­tion.

Murray15 Feb 2023 14:26 UTC
10 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] Pre­dic­tive Perfor­mance on Me­tac­u­lus vs. Man­i­fold Markets

nikos3 Mar 2023 19:39 UTC
111 points
8 comments5 min readEA link

[Question] Should Twit­ter have pre­dic­tion mar­kets in Com­mu­nity Notes?

Nathan Young20 Oct 2023 12:27 UTC
17 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Create a pre­dic­tion mar­ket in two min­utes on Man­i­fold Markets

Austin9 Feb 2022 17:37 UTC
32 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Bank: A way around cur­rent pre­dic­tion mar­ket reg­u­la­tions?

gvst25 Jan 2022 4:21 UTC
25 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Why is EA so en­thu­si­as­tic about fore­cast­ing?

Luis Mota Freitas9 Jul 2023 16:35 UTC
57 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

Re­search Sum­mary: Pre­dic­tion Markets

Damien Laird22 Mar 2023 17:07 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(damienlaird.substack.com)

Last Chance: Get Tick­ets to Man­i­fest 2023! (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

Saul Munn6 Sep 2023 10:41 UTC
8 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets For Credit?

DirectedEvolution5 Mar 2022 20:33 UTC
16 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

Chris Leong24 Mar 2023 19:43 UTC
27 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

Pro­posal + Demo: Con­nect Guessti­mate and Me­tac­u­lus and Turn them into Trees

Charlie_Guthmann25 Mar 2023 17:15 UTC
15 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Fo­rum rank­ing sys­tem pro­to­type: Cause Pri­orit­sa­tion Con­test posts ranked by pre­dic­tion markets

Nathan Young5 Sep 2022 15:55 UTC
18 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

The Char­ity En­trepreneur­ship top ideas new char­ity pre­dic­tion market

CE17 May 2023 14:30 UTC
101 points
10 comments9 min readEA link

LW4EA: Six eco­nomics mis­con­cep­tions of mine which I’ve re­solved over the last few years

Jeremy30 Aug 2022 15:20 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Share Your Feed­back and Help Us Refine Me­tac­u­lus’s Scor­ing Sys­tem

christian7 Aug 2023 23:09 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

OPTIC: An­nounc­ing In­ter­col­le­giate Fore­cast­ing Tour­na­ments in SF, DC, Boston

Saul Munn13 Oct 2023 1:26 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Man­i­fo­lio: The tool for mak­ing Kelly op­ti­mal bets on Man­i­fold Markets

Will Howard🔹10 Aug 2023 11:26 UTC
81 points
19 comments2 min readEA link
(manifol.io)

Quick, High-EV Ad­van­tage Sports­bet­ting Op­por­tu­nity in 18 US States

Joseph B.4 Jun 2023 3:27 UTC
−1 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

De­sign­ing Ar­tifi­cial Wis­dom: De­ci­sion Fore­cast­ing AI & Futarchy

Jordan Arel14 Jul 2024 5:10 UTC
5 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Mar­kets are Some­what Over­rated Within EA

Francis1 Sep 2022 2:17 UTC
16 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

A Man­i­fold Mar­ket “Leaked” the AI Ex­tinc­tion State­ment and CAIS Wanted it Deleted

David Chee12 Jun 2023 15:57 UTC
24 points
9 comments12 min readEA link
(news.manifold.markets)

Why I don’t trust forecasters

WobblyPanda221 Jun 2023 6:19 UTC
−3 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Man­i­fest 2023 (Sep 22-24 in Berkeley)

Manifest14 Aug 2023 11:41 UTC
46 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

My ex­pe­rience at the con­tro­ver­sial Man­i­fest 2024

Maniano17 Jun 2024 18:07 UTC
51 points
246 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] Is now a good time to ad­vo­cate for pre­dic­tion mar­ket gov­er­nance ex­per­i­ments in the UK?

John_Maxwell21 Oct 2022 11:51 UTC
9 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

Re­minder: you can donate your mana to char­ity!

Austin29 Nov 2022 18:30 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(manifold.markets)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2022.

NunoSempere10 Sep 2022 8:59 UTC
29 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing The Pre­dic­tion Post

David Glidden2 Mar 2024 4:58 UTC
17 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(thepredictionpost.substack.com)

The World in 2029

Nathan Young2 Mar 2024 18:03 UTC
88 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Flag­ging up a ‘pre­dic­tion mar­ket’

Forumite12 Jul 2022 12:07 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Man­i­fold Mar­kets in­ter­view with Joel Becker

David Chee15 Jul 2022 20:33 UTC
13 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Pre­dic­tion Tour­na­ment: Who will win the Cause Ex­plo­ra­tion Prize?

Sinclair Chen2 Sep 2022 1:11 UTC
13 points
1 comment2 min readEA link