I don’t even know that it’s more interesting. What’s interesting is different for different people, but if I’m honest with myself I probably find timelines forecasting more interesting than decision theory, even though I find decision theory pretty damn interesting.
If it is any indication, I’m plenty skeptical of the value of marginal timelines work—it’s a very busy area, and one that probably needs less work than it gets - I suspect partly because it has lots of visibility.
Yes, in AI safety that seems correct—it’s still probably more interesting to do more theoretical work, but it is less prestigious or visible.
I don’t even know that it’s more interesting. What’s interesting is different for different people, but if I’m honest with myself I probably find timelines forecasting more interesting than decision theory, even though I find decision theory pretty damn interesting.
If it is any indication, I’m plenty skeptical of the value of marginal timelines work—it’s a very busy area, and one that probably needs less work than it gets - I suspect partly because it has lots of visibility.
Fair enough!