A crux that I have here is that research that takes a while to explain is not going to inspire a popular movement.
Okay, what comes to mind for me here is quantum mechanics and how weāve come up with some pretty good analogies to explain parts of it.
Do we really need to communicate the full intricacies of AI sentience to say that an AI is conscious? I guess that this isnāt the case.
The world where EA research and advocacy for AI welfare is most crucial is one where the reasons to think that AI systems are conscious are non-obvious, such that we require research to discover them, and require advocacy to convince the broader public of them. But I think that world where this is true, and the advocacy succeeds, is a pretty unlikely one.
I think this is creating a potential false dichotomy? Hereās what I believe might happen in AI Sentience without any intervention as an example:
1. Consciousness is IIT (Integrated Information Theory) or GWT (Global Workspace Theory) based in some way or another. In other words, we have some sort of underlying field of sentience like the electromagnetic field and when parts of the field interact in specific ways then āconsciousnessā appears as a point load in that field. 2. Consciousness is then only verifiable if this field has consequences on the other fields of reality; otherwise, it is non-popperian, like the Multiverse theory. 3. Number 2 is really hard to prove and so weāre left with very correlational evidence. It is also tightly connected to what we think of as metaphysics, meaning that weāre going to be quite confused about it. 4. Therefore, general legislators and researchers leave this up to chance and do not compute any complete metrics, as it is too difficult a problem. They hope that AIs donāt have sentience.
In this world, adding some AI sentience research from the EA Direction could have the consequences of:
1. Making AI labs have consciousness researchers on board so that they donāt torture billions of iterations of the same AI. 2. Make governments create consciousness legislation and think tanks for the rights of AI. 3. Create technical benchmarks and theories about what is deemed to be conscious (See this initial, really good report for example)
You donāt have to convince the general public; you have to convince the major stakeholders of tests that check for AI consciousness. It honestly seems kind of similar to what we have done for the safety of AI models but instead for the consciousness of them?
Iām quite excited for this week as it is a topic Iām very interested in but something that I also feel that I canāt really talk about that much or take seriously as it is a bit fringe so thank you for having it!
Iām quite excited for this week as it is a topic Iām very interested in but something that I also feel that I canāt really talk about that much or take seriously as it is a bit fringe so thank you for having it!
Thanks! Iām also excited about this week- itās really cool to see how many people have already voted- goes well beyond my expectations.
You donāt have to convince the general public; you have to convince the major stakeholders of tests that check for AI consciousness. It honestly seems kind of similar to what we have done for the safety of AI models but instead for the consciousness of them?
I think this is a great point, and might change my mind. However, if these consciousness evals become burdensome for AI companies, I would imagine we would need a public push in support of them in order for them to be enforced, especially through legislation. Then we get back to my dichotomy, where if people think AI is obviously conscious (whether or not it is) we might get legislation, and if they donāt, I can only imagine some companies doing it half-heartedly/ā voluntarily until it becomes too costly (as is, arguably, the current state of safety evals).
Yeah, I guess the crux here is to what extent we actually need public support or at least what type of public support that we need for it to become legislation?
If we can convince 80-90% of the experts, then I believe that this has cascading effects on the population, and it isnāt like AI being conscious is something that is impossible to believe either. Iām sure millions of students have had discussions about AI sentience for fun, and so it isnāt like fully out of the Overton window either.
Iām curious to know if you disagree with the above or if there is another reason why you think research wonāt cascade to public opinion? Any examples you could point towards?
I donāt have an example to mind exactly, but Iād expect you could find one in animal welfare. Where there are agricultural interests pushing against a decision, you need a public campaign to counter them. We donāt live in technocraciesārepresentatives need to be shown that there is a commensurate interest in favour of the animals. On less important issues/ā legislation which can be symbolic but isnāt expected to be used- experts can have a more of a role. Iād expect that the former category is the more important one for digital minds. Does that make sense? Iām aware its a bit too stark of a dichotomy to be true.
Thereās this idea of the truth as an asymmetric weapon; I guess my point isnāt necessarily that the approach vector will be something like: Expert discussion ā Policy change
but rather something like Experts discussion ā Public opinion change ā Policy Change
You could say something about memetics and that it is the most understandable memes that get passed down rather than the truth, which is, to some extent, fair. I guess Iām a believer that the world can be updated based on expert opinion.
For example, Iāve noticed a trend in the AI Safety debate: the quality seems to get better and more nuanced over time (at least, IMO). Iām not sure what this entails for the general publicās understanding of this topic but it feels like it affects the policy makers.
You could say something about memetics and that it is the most understandable memes that get passed down rather than the truth, which is, to some extent, fair. I guess Iām a believer that the world can be updated based on expert opinion.
I think this is a good description of the kind of scepticism Iām attracted to, perhaps to an irrational degree. Thanks for describing it!
I like your point about AI Safety. It seems at least a bit true.
Iāll update my vote on the banner to be a bit less sceptical- I think my scepticism of the potential for us to know whether AI is conscious is a major part of my disagreement with the debate statement. I donāt endorse the level of scepticism I hold. Thanks!
Okay, what comes to mind for me here is quantum mechanics and how weāve come up with some pretty good analogies to explain parts of it.
Do we really need to communicate the full intricacies of AI sentience to say that an AI is conscious? I guess that this isnāt the case.
I think this is creating a potential false dichotomy?
Hereās what I believe might happen in AI Sentience without any intervention as an example:
1. Consciousness is IIT (Integrated Information Theory) or GWT (Global Workspace Theory) based in some way or another. In other words, we have some sort of underlying field of sentience like the electromagnetic field and when parts of the field interact in specific ways then āconsciousnessā appears as a point load in that field.
2. Consciousness is then only verifiable if this field has consequences on the other fields of reality; otherwise, it is non-popperian, like the Multiverse theory.
3. Number 2 is really hard to prove and so weāre left with very correlational evidence. It is also tightly connected to what we think of as metaphysics, meaning that weāre going to be quite confused about it.
4. Therefore, general legislators and researchers leave this up to chance and do not compute any complete metrics, as it is too difficult a problem. They hope that AIs donāt have sentience.
In this world, adding some AI sentience research from the EA Direction could have the consequences of:
1. Making AI labs have consciousness researchers on board so that they donāt torture billions of iterations of the same AI.
2. Make governments create consciousness legislation and think tanks for the rights of AI.
3. Create technical benchmarks and theories about what is deemed to be conscious (See this initial, really good report for example)
You donāt have to convince the general public; you have to convince the major stakeholders of tests that check for AI consciousness. It honestly seems kind of similar to what we have done for the safety of AI models but instead for the consciousness of them?
Iām quite excited for this week as it is a topic Iām very interested in but something that I also feel that I canāt really talk about that much or take seriously as it is a bit fringe so thank you for having it!
Thanks! Iām also excited about this week- itās really cool to see how many people have already voted- goes well beyond my expectations.
I think this is a great point, and might change my mind. However, if these consciousness evals become burdensome for AI companies, I would imagine we would need a public push in support of them in order for them to be enforced, especially through legislation. Then we get back to my dichotomy, where if people think AI is obviously conscious (whether or not it is) we might get legislation, and if they donāt, I can only imagine some companies doing it half-heartedly/ā voluntarily until it becomes too costly (as is, arguably, the current state of safety evals).
Yeah, I guess the crux here is to what extent we actually need public support or at least what type of public support that we need for it to become legislation?
If we can convince 80-90% of the experts, then I believe that this has cascading effects on the population, and it isnāt like AI being conscious is something that is impossible to believe either.
Iām sure millions of students have had discussions about AI sentience for fun, and so it isnāt like fully out of the Overton window either.
Iām curious to know if you disagree with the above or if there is another reason why you think research wonāt cascade to public opinion? Any examples you could point towards?
I donāt have an example to mind exactly, but Iād expect you could find one in animal welfare. Where there are agricultural interests pushing against a decision, you need a public campaign to counter them. We donāt live in technocraciesārepresentatives need to be shown that there is a commensurate interest in favour of the animals. On less important issues/ā legislation which can be symbolic but isnāt expected to be used- experts can have a more of a role. Iād expect that the former category is the more important one for digital minds. Does that make sense? Iām aware its a bit too stark of a dichotomy to be true.
Thereās this idea of the truth as an asymmetric weapon; I guess my point isnāt necessarily that the approach vector will be something like:
Expert discussion ā Policy change
but rather something like
Experts discussion ā Public opinion change ā Policy Change
You could say something about memetics and that it is the most understandable memes that get passed down rather than the truth, which is, to some extent, fair. I guess Iām a believer that the world can be updated based on expert opinion.
For example, Iāve noticed a trend in the AI Safety debate: the quality seems to get better and more nuanced over time (at least, IMO). Iām not sure what this entails for the general publicās understanding of this topic but it feels like it affects the policy makers.
I think this is a good description of the kind of scepticism Iām attracted to, perhaps to an irrational degree. Thanks for describing it!
I like your point about AI Safety. It seems at least a bit true.
Iāll update my vote on the banner to be a bit less sceptical- I think my scepticism of the potential for us to know whether AI is conscious is a major part of my disagreement with the debate statement. I donāt endorse the level of scepticism I hold. Thanks!