I don’t think Option A is available in practice: I think the recipients will tend save too little of the money. That’s the primary argument by which I have argued for Option B over giving now (see e.g. here).
But with all respect, it seems to me that you got a bit confused a few comments back about how to frame the question of when it’s best to spend on an effort to spur catch-up growth, and when that was made clear, instead of acknowledging it, you’ve kept trying to turn the subject to the question of when to give more generally. Maybe that’s not how you see it, but given that that’s how it seems to me, I hope it’s understandable if I say I find it frustrating and would rather not continue to engage.
I think it depends on the time horizon. If catch-up growth is not near-guaranteed in 100 years, I think waiting 100 years is probably better than spending now. If it is near-guaranteed, I think that the case for waiting 100 years ambiguous, but there is some longer period of time which would be better.
Full-length post here. Feel free to comment if you want or not comment if you don’t want.
I didn’t understand your argument about economic growth above. I was hoping you’d give an argument based on empirical data or forecasts rather than a purely theoretical argument. So, I wasn’t convinced by that. But I acknowledge there is high uncertainty with regard to future growth, and the wisdom of patient philanthropy partly depends on assumptions about growth.
I don’t think Option A is available in practice: I think the recipients will tend save too little of the money. That’s the primary argument by which I have argued for Option B over giving now (see e.g. here).
But with all respect, it seems to me that you got a bit confused a few comments back about how to frame the question of when it’s best to spend on an effort to spur catch-up growth, and when that was made clear, instead of acknowledging it, you’ve kept trying to turn the subject to the question of when to give more generally. Maybe that’s not how you see it, but given that that’s how it seems to me, I hope it’s understandable if I say I find it frustrating and would rather not continue to engage.
Would you mind addressing the argument that patient philanthropy is empirically ~3x less cost-effective than donating now?
I think it depends on the time horizon. If catch-up growth is not near-guaranteed in 100 years, I think waiting 100 years is probably better than spending now. If it is near-guaranteed, I think that the case for waiting 100 years ambiguous, but there is some longer period of time which would be better.
Full-length post here. Feel free to comment if you want or not comment if you don’t want.
I didn’t understand your argument about economic growth above. I was hoping you’d give an argument based on empirical data or forecasts rather than a purely theoretical argument. So, I wasn’t convinced by that. But I acknowledge there is high uncertainty with regard to future growth, and the wisdom of patient philanthropy partly depends on assumptions about growth.