Thank you for this! I think that there are several paths to impact for a scaled up version of this, but I am not at all sure what path is most consequential. I am curious about what you think is the most important way evaluations of this sort can have an impact.
Experimenting with evaluations in order to get generalizable lessons.
Making a robust rubric and then eventually either incorporating it or elements of it into a more prestigious ranking,
Influencing billionaires in a more altruistic or effective direction
I’m aiming for 1. If I or others continue working on it, 2. could be decently likely (like, 1 to 20%?). 3 seems more like a valuable but improbable event (<<1%).
Hmm, I guess I’m more optimistic about 3 than you are. Billionaires are both very competitive and often care a lot about how they’re perceived, and if a scaled-up and properly framed version of this evaluation were to gain sufficient currency (e.g. via the billionaires who score well on it), you might well see at least some incremental movement. I’d put the chances of that around 5%.
Thank you for this! I think that there are several paths to impact for a scaled up version of this, but I am not at all sure what path is most consequential. I am curious about what you think is the most important way evaluations of this sort can have an impact.
Hey, thanks. I can think of:
Experimenting with evaluations in order to get generalizable lessons.
Making a robust rubric and then eventually either incorporating it or elements of it into a more prestigious ranking,
Influencing billionaires in a more altruistic or effective direction
I’m aiming for 1. If I or others continue working on it, 2. could be decently likely (like, 1 to 20%?). 3 seems more like a valuable but improbable event (<<1%).
Hmm, I guess I’m more optimistic about 3 than you are. Billionaires are both very competitive and often care a lot about how they’re perceived, and if a scaled-up and properly framed version of this evaluation were to gain sufficient currency (e.g. via the billionaires who score well on it), you might well see at least some incremental movement. I’d put the chances of that around 5%.