My sense is that there’s been a significant shift in how much longtermists prioritise non-extinction risks over the last few years. A decade ago people who were trying to ensure the flourishing of the universe trillions of years from now were very often focused on avoiding events that would kill all humans.
I agree that this shift has happened over the past 2 years. But I think 2 to 3 years ago EAs were unusually focused on extinction compared to a decade ago. I remember more discussions back then around positive visions for the longterm.
For what it’s worth, we just announced our first Frontier Biodefense Fellowship at Pivotal, which is more singularly focused on avoiding extinction than most projects within AI safety (including our AI safety fellowship). Obviously the team has a range of motivation to work on Biodefense, but for me weak longtermist arguments are quite central.
I am really happy you are focusing squarely on existential risk from bio. I think there is a tendency in EA-adjacent biosec work to lose a bit of focus on how extremely bad such scenarios are. I also think it is great you raised this Michelle—I also feel like not enough EAs have contemplated the importance of 2 further assumptions needed to work on longtermism:
1 - Massive increase in value in the future (re: Arepo’s billions of star civilization), and 2 - Very few or not other periods of existential risk for the rest of the infinite future
I agree that this shift has happened over the past 2 years. But I think 2 to 3 years ago EAs were unusually focused on extinction compared to a decade ago. I remember more discussions back then around positive visions for the longterm.
For what it’s worth, we just announced our first Frontier Biodefense Fellowship at Pivotal, which is more singularly focused on avoiding extinction than most projects within AI safety (including our AI safety fellowship). Obviously the team has a range of motivation to work on Biodefense, but for me weak longtermist arguments are quite central.
I am really happy you are focusing squarely on existential risk from bio. I think there is a tendency in EA-adjacent biosec work to lose a bit of focus on how extremely bad such scenarios are. I also think it is great you raised this Michelle—I also feel like not enough EAs have contemplated the importance of 2 further assumptions needed to work on longtermism:
1 - Massive increase in value in the future (re: Arepo’s billions of star civilization), and
2 - Very few or not other periods of existential risk for the rest of the infinite future
Interesting, I don’t think I noticed that trend between 10 years ago and 2 years ago.
Cool!