I looked at the reference and I don’t see evidence for the 80% number. The majority of the mineral budget (total ~1% of GDP) is cement, iron, and aluminum. It looks like China mines little iron and aluminum, though it does refine a lot of them. Eyeballing it looks like China is ~half production and consumption minerals, which is a lot. But the idea that China would control 100% of the world’s mining, refining, smelting, manufacture and recycling is hyperbole.
Ok, I looked again and the 80% figure is a bit a stretch compared to the initial formula, I can agree. I think it’s not just “China is mining these minerals” but “China is involved in the material chain at some point, through mining or refining or smelting or manufacturing or recycling” (with varying degrees of dependency). That could be where the 80% figure comes from. 100% is not realistic, but China’s share is the value chain is increasing.
But even if we were to stick to 50% of control as you suggest, or 60%, this would not change much of the issue that there is a lot of dependency, indeed. A lot of potential vulnerability would arise if China were to cut down some of its exports (whether voluntarily, or by accident, or because of a pandemic).
I looked at the reference and I don’t see evidence for the 80% number. The majority of the mineral budget (total ~1% of GDP) is cement, iron, and aluminum. It looks like China mines little iron and aluminum, though it does refine a lot of them. Eyeballing it looks like China is ~half production and consumption minerals, which is a lot. But the idea that China would control 100% of the world’s mining, refining, smelting, manufacture and recycling is hyperbole.
Ok, I looked again and the 80% figure is a bit a stretch compared to the initial formula, I can agree. I think it’s not just “China is mining these minerals” but “China is involved in the material chain at some point, through mining or refining or smelting or manufacturing or recycling” (with varying degrees of dependency). That could be where the 80% figure comes from. 100% is not realistic, but China’s share is the value chain is increasing.
But even if we were to stick to 50% of control as you suggest, or 60%, this would not change much of the issue that there is a lot of dependency, indeed. A lot of potential vulnerability would arise if China were to cut down some of its exports (whether voluntarily, or by accident, or because of a pandemic).