I think you’re entirely right here. I basically take back what I said in that line.
I think the thing I originally wanted to convey there is something like “people systematically overestimate effects like Dunning-Kruger and imposter syndrome,” but I basically agree that most of the intuition I have is in pretty strongly range-restricted settings. I do basically think people are pretty poorly calibrated about where they are compared to the world.
(I also think it’s notably more likely that Olivia is above average than below average.)
Relatedly, I think social group stratification might explain some of the other comments to this post that I found surprising/tone-deaf. (e.g. the jump from “did a degree in sociology” to “you can be a sociologist in EA” felt surprising to me, as someone from a non-elite American college who casually tracks which jobs my non-STEM peers end up in).
I think you’re entirely right here. I basically take back what I said in that line.
I think the thing I originally wanted to convey there is something like “people systematically overestimate effects like Dunning-Kruger and imposter syndrome,” but I basically agree that most of the intuition I have is in pretty strongly range-restricted settings. I do basically think people are pretty poorly calibrated about where they are compared to the world.
(I also think it’s notably more likely that Olivia is above average than below average.)
Relatedly, I think social group stratification might explain some of the other comments to this post that I found surprising/tone-deaf. (e.g. the jump from “did a degree in sociology” to “you can be a sociologist in EA” felt surprising to me, as someone from a non-elite American college who casually tracks which jobs my non-STEM peers end up in).
Yes, that’s my guess as well.