There’s certainly been discussion of the potential efficacy of growth-focused interventions from an EA perspective, as in this Forum Post, “Growth and the case against randomista development” (a winner of the EA Forum First Decade Review!)
To give you a taste, some arguments of theirs I found quite thought-provoking were:
Take a hypothetical cost for all economists from 1960-2010 ($300B). Assume the only impact the entire field had in this time was to “increase by 4 percentage points the probability that the Chinese government shifted to [its] new economic strategy” which drove their growth 1977+. Then, this “intervention” (the field of economics) would still have had higher ROI than cash transfers (or a “Graduation Approach” program to helping lift people out of extreme poverty)
Charts showing the relationship between median income / consumption and extreme poverty which suggest the importance (necessity?) of high median income to the reduction or elimination of poverty
...I also believe they made an argument that health interventions are actually “cheaper” through Growth vs. direct interventions due to improved health outcomes we see in countries as they grow economically… though I’m not seeing that now as I re-skim so perhaps that was a different piece
All of this said… it’s hard to imagine this logic would hold (as) true for interventions in the US where Open Philanthropy is saying they’re focused within this fund at the moment. So on that front I’ll admit I’m more confused!
Innovation around technology that would help people in low income countries (medical innovation, fintech, drone deliveries etc.
Then I saw it was all US based.
Again I don’t mind at all if open Phil has a non EA d based, US based philanthropy arm, that might be what the donors want to do and might even be a good strategic move for PR reasons. But might be good to be more explicit about that.
I think that one thing that makes this a bit more confusing, to me, is the focus on Abundance / scientific progress / Progress Studies. These areas often focus on things other than strict economic growth.
It’s just an incredibly broad area that they are discussing, if they want to cover things in both “Economic Growth” and “Abundance / Progress Studies”.
Especially if they also want to cover things outside the US as well as inside the US. (Sorry, I see it’s mainly US now)
There’s certainly been discussion of the potential efficacy of growth-focused interventions from an EA perspective, as in this Forum Post, “Growth and the case against randomista development” (a winner of the EA Forum First Decade Review!)
To give you a taste, some arguments of theirs I found quite thought-provoking were:
Take a hypothetical cost for all economists from 1960-2010 ($300B). Assume the only impact the entire field had in this time was to “increase by 4 percentage points the probability that the Chinese government shifted to [its] new economic strategy” which drove their growth 1977+. Then, this “intervention” (the field of economics) would still have had higher ROI than cash transfers (or a “Graduation Approach” program to helping lift people out of extreme poverty)
Charts showing the relationship between median income / consumption and extreme poverty which suggest the importance (necessity?) of high median income to the reduction or elimination of poverty
...I also believe they made an argument that health interventions are actually “cheaper” through Growth vs. direct interventions due to improved health outcomes we see in countries as they grow economically… though I’m not seeing that now as I re-skim so perhaps that was a different piece
All of this said… it’s hard to imagine this logic would hold (as) true for interventions in the US where Open Philanthropy is saying they’re focused within this fund at the moment. So on that front I’ll admit I’m more confused!
Yep when I first saw it I assumed they meant
Economic growth in low income countries and...
Innovation around technology that would help people in low income countries (medical innovation, fintech, drone deliveries etc.
Then I saw it was all US based.
Again I don’t mind at all if open Phil has a non EA d based, US based philanthropy arm, that might be what the donors want to do and might even be a good strategic move for PR reasons. But might be good to be more explicit about that.
I think that one thing that makes this a bit more confusing, to me, is the focus on Abundance / scientific progress / Progress Studies. These areas often focus on things other than strict economic growth.
It’s just an incredibly broad area that they are discussing, if they want to cover things in both “Economic Growth” and “Abundance / Progress Studies”.
Especially if they also want to cover things outside the US as well as inside the US.(Sorry, I see it’s mainly US now)