First great job getting other funders on board here I love that. I’ve got a coupke of queries here for things that I didn’t write understand
“We also think our housing policy work clears our internal bar for impact. Our current internal valuation on a marginal housing unit in a highly constrained metro area in the US is just over $400k (so a grant would be above the bar if we think it causes a new unit in expectation for $200)”
I don’t understand what this means, is there a report or something you could link to which explains it?
Also I read the report you linked on R and D where it didn’t clear the funding bar. That said 45x, you were pushing that up to 76x
“In a highly stylized calculation, the social returns to marginal R&D are high, but typically not as high as the returns in some other areas we’re interested in (e.g. cash transfers to those in absolute poverty). Measured in our units of impact (where “1X” is giving cash to someone earning $50k/year) I estimate the cost effectiveness of funding R&D is 45X. This is 45% the ROI from giving cash to someone earning $500/year, and 4.5% the GHW bar for funding. More.”
I understand that you think you can raise efficiency of certain types of R@D, but getting from 70x to 2100x means you would have to 30x the efficiency. I struggle to understand how that would be likely again any pointers here?
On the housing piece: we have a long internal report on the valuation question that we didn’t think was particularly relevant to external folks so we haven’t published it, but will see about doing so later this year. Fn 7 and the text around it of this grant writeup explain the basic math of a previous version of that valuation calc, though our recent version is a lot more complex.
If you’re asking about the bar math, the general logic is explained here and the move to a 2,100x bar is mentioned here.
On R&D, the 70x number comes from Matt Clancy’s report (and I think we may have made some modest internal revisions but I don’t think they change the bottom line much). You’re right that that implies we need ~30x leverage to clear our bar. We sometimes think that is possible directly through strategic project selection—e.g., we fund direct R&D on neglected and important global health problems, and sometimes (in the case of this portfolio) through policy/advocacy. I agree 30x leverage presents a high bar and I think it’s totally reasonable to be skeptical about whether we can clear it, but we think we sometimes can.
Thanks @Alexander_Berger that all makes complete sense, appreciate the clear and comprehensive reply—all the best with this work. Predictably basic me especially likes the direct RandD on neglected Global Health :).
First great job getting other funders on board here I love that. I’ve got a coupke of queries here for things that I didn’t write understand
“We also think our housing policy work clears our internal bar for impact. Our current internal valuation on a marginal housing unit in a highly constrained metro area in the US is just over $400k (so a grant would be above the bar if we think it causes a new unit in expectation for $200)”
I don’t understand what this means, is there a report or something you could link to which explains it?
Also I read the report you linked on R and D where it didn’t clear the funding bar. That said 45x, you were pushing that up to 76x
“In a highly stylized calculation, the social returns to marginal R&D are high, but typically not as high as the returns in some other areas we’re interested in (e.g. cash transfers to those in absolute poverty). Measured in our units of impact (where “1X” is giving cash to someone earning $50k/year) I estimate the cost effectiveness of funding R&D is 45X. This is 45% the ROI from giving cash to someone earning $500/year, and 4.5% the GHW bar for funding. More.”
I understand that you think you can raise efficiency of certain types of R@D, but getting from 70x to 2100x means you would have to 30x the efficiency. I struggle to understand how that would be likely again any pointers here?
Thanks Nick.
On the housing piece: we have a long internal report on the valuation question that we didn’t think was particularly relevant to external folks so we haven’t published it, but will see about doing so later this year. Fn 7 and the text around it of this grant writeup explain the basic math of a previous version of that valuation calc, though our recent version is a lot more complex.
If you’re asking about the bar math, the general logic is explained here and the move to a 2,100x bar is mentioned here.
On R&D, the 70x number comes from Matt Clancy’s report (and I think we may have made some modest internal revisions but I don’t think they change the bottom line much). You’re right that that implies we need ~30x leverage to clear our bar. We sometimes think that is possible directly through strategic project selection—e.g., we fund direct R&D on neglected and important global health problems, and sometimes (in the case of this portfolio) through policy/advocacy. I agree 30x leverage presents a high bar and I think it’s totally reasonable to be skeptical about whether we can clear it, but we think we sometimes can.
Thanks @Alexander_Berger that all makes complete sense, appreciate the clear and comprehensive reply—all the best with this work. Predictably basic me especially likes the direct RandD on neglected Global Health :).