On the housing piece: we have a long internal report on the valuation question that we didn’t think was particularly relevant to external folks so we haven’t published it, but will see about doing so later this year. Fn 7 and the text around it of this grant writeup explain the basic math of a previous version of that valuation calc, though our recent version is a lot more complex.
If you’re asking about the bar math, the general logic is explained here and the move to a 2,100x bar is mentioned here.
On R&D, the 70x number comes from Matt Clancy’s report (and I think we may have made some modest internal revisions but I don’t think they change the bottom line much). You’re right that that implies we need ~30x leverage to clear our bar. We sometimes think that is possible directly through strategic project selection—e.g., we fund direct R&D on neglected and important global health problems, and sometimes (in the case of this portfolio) through policy/advocacy. I agree 30x leverage presents a high bar and I think it’s totally reasonable to be skeptical about whether we can clear it, but we think we sometimes can.
Thanks @Alexander_Berger that all makes complete sense, appreciate the clear and comprehensive reply—all the best with this work. Predictably basic me especially likes the direct RandD on neglected Global Health :).
Thanks Nick.
On the housing piece: we have a long internal report on the valuation question that we didn’t think was particularly relevant to external folks so we haven’t published it, but will see about doing so later this year. Fn 7 and the text around it of this grant writeup explain the basic math of a previous version of that valuation calc, though our recent version is a lot more complex.
If you’re asking about the bar math, the general logic is explained here and the move to a 2,100x bar is mentioned here.
On R&D, the 70x number comes from Matt Clancy’s report (and I think we may have made some modest internal revisions but I don’t think they change the bottom line much). You’re right that that implies we need ~30x leverage to clear our bar. We sometimes think that is possible directly through strategic project selection—e.g., we fund direct R&D on neglected and important global health problems, and sometimes (in the case of this portfolio) through policy/advocacy. I agree 30x leverage presents a high bar and I think it’s totally reasonable to be skeptical about whether we can clear it, but we think we sometimes can.
Thanks @Alexander_Berger that all makes complete sense, appreciate the clear and comprehensive reply—all the best with this work. Predictably basic me especially likes the direct RandD on neglected Global Health :).