These approaches could help! I don’t have strong reason to believe that they will, nor do I have strong reason to believe that they won’t, and I also don’t have strong reason to believe that the existing system is particularly problematic. I am just generally very uncertain and am mostly saying that other people should also be uncertain (or should explain why they are more confident).
Re: deliberative retrospective judgments as a solution: I assume you are going to be predicting what the deliberative retrospective judgment is in most cases (otherwise it would be far too expensive); it is unclear how easy it will be to do these sorts of predictions. Bullet points 1 and 2 were possibilities where the prediction was hard; I didn’t see on a quick skim why you think they wouldn’t happen. I agree “bridging divides” probably avoids bullet point 3, but I could easily tell different just-so stories where “bridging divides” is a bad choice (e.g. current affairs / news / politics almost always leads to divides, and so is no longer recommended; the population becomes extremely ignorant as a result worsening political dynamics).
These approaches could help! I don’t have strong reason to believe that they will, nor do I have strong reason to believe that they won’t, and I also don’t have strong reason to believe that the existing system is particularly problematic. I am just generally very uncertain and am mostly saying that other people should also be uncertain (or should explain why they are more confident).
Re: deliberative retrospective judgments as a solution: I assume you are going to be predicting what the deliberative retrospective judgment is in most cases (otherwise it would be far too expensive); it is unclear how easy it will be to do these sorts of predictions. Bullet points 1 and 2 were possibilities where the prediction was hard; I didn’t see on a quick skim why you think they wouldn’t happen. I agree “bridging divides” probably avoids bullet point 3, but I could easily tell different just-so stories where “bridging divides” is a bad choice (e.g. current affairs / news / politics almost always leads to divides, and so is no longer recommended; the population becomes extremely ignorant as a result worsening political dynamics).