Thank you for highlighting this. [Note: I work at Anthropic.]
A very, very important caveat I wish you had included:
“Anthropic is also going to IPO” → No. Just because Anthropic is doing “IPO readiness” does not mean this is confirmed in any sense, although it does imply an elevated likelihood. Nobody other than the innermost circle of the Anthropic finance team could possibly know if in fact Anthropic is going to IPO before it happens. Many companies do “IPO readiness” and do not IPO.
The ecosystem should also become “IPO ready”, but counting on an IPO as a certainty is a mistake.
I would be very cautious with making any (hard to reverse) career decisions dependent on the Anthropic IPO.
Reminds me of the FTX Future Fund situation—suddenly there was twice (?) as much AI safety funding available, many people quit their (E2G) job to start a new AI safety org, and then a few months later, the funds disappeared, and we were back to pre-FTX funding levels but now with many more people in direct AIS work, leading to a much higher funding bar than before. (This is of course different, Anthropic is not FTX)
It’s hard to estimate how many people back then took costly, hard to reverse career decisions that seemd worthwhile in expectation, but regrettable without FTX funds—maybe 100s?
Thank you Catherio and Oscar for pointing this out! My mistake—everyone in the space seems to talk about the IPO as though it’s a foregone conclusion, so I didn’t hedge as much as I should have when I was writing this. I’ve added a note to the beginning of the post clarifying this!
Thank you for highlighting this. [Note: I work at Anthropic.]
A very, very important caveat I wish you had included:
“Anthropic is also going to IPO” → No. Just because Anthropic is doing “IPO readiness” does not mean this is confirmed in any sense, although it does imply an elevated likelihood. Nobody other than the innermost circle of the Anthropic finance team could possibly know if in fact Anthropic is going to IPO before it happens. Many companies do “IPO readiness” and do not IPO.
The ecosystem should also become “IPO ready”, but counting on an IPO as a certainty is a mistake.
Good point. According to this manifold market an IPO within the next year is ~75% likely.
(I think you meant to say “next year”)
whoops, thanks, fixed
Thanks!
I would be very cautious with making any (hard to reverse) career decisions dependent on the Anthropic IPO.
Reminds me of the FTX Future Fund situation—suddenly there was twice (?) as much AI safety funding available, many people quit their (E2G) job to start a new AI safety org, and then a few months later, the funds disappeared, and we were back to pre-FTX funding levels but now with many more people in direct AIS work, leading to a much higher funding bar than before. (This is of course different, Anthropic is not FTX)
It’s hard to estimate how many people back then took costly, hard to reverse career decisions that seemd worthwhile in expectation, but regrettable without FTX funds—maybe 100s?
Thank you Catherio and Oscar for pointing this out! My mistake—everyone in the space seems to talk about the IPO as though it’s a foregone conclusion, so I didn’t hedge as much as I should have when I was writing this. I’ve added a note to the beginning of the post clarifying this!