Is your sense that if the cost-effectiveness estimate had come back positive, but not overwhelmingly positive (let’s say like a 70th percentile OP grant-dollar in the last year), that this would have flipped the decision?
Given that not vetoing this grant made Alexander’s top list of decisions he regrets, mostly because of the negative optics-aspects, I would be surprised if the cost-effectiveness estimate was actually a crux here.
I don’t really know (and have had almost no interactions with Alexander). But it would be unsurprising to me if that would have flipped the decision.
Basically: Alexander’s views seem compatible with a real felt regret after the controversy about it a year ago, and this being the first time one can talk about it publicly without undermining a grantee. Since the PR costs have by this stage largely(?) been paid, it seems quite plausible that if the cost-effectiveness analysis had come back mildly positive he’d have continued to feel regret about not having averted the past issue, while now thinking it was right to continue support.
Thanks, that’s very helpful, though if you think it’s mostly because the PR cost has already been paid, then that does provide little solace under my worldview. Let’s assume the PR costs were still ongoing, do you think it would have then flipped the decision?
Is your sense that if the cost-effectiveness estimate had come back positive, but not overwhelmingly positive (let’s say like a 70th percentile OP grant-dollar in the last year), that this would have flipped the decision?
Given that not vetoing this grant made Alexander’s top list of decisions he regrets, mostly because of the negative optics-aspects, I would be surprised if the cost-effectiveness estimate was actually a crux here.
I don’t really know (and have had almost no interactions with Alexander). But it would be unsurprising to me if that would have flipped the decision.
Basically: Alexander’s views seem compatible with a real felt regret after the controversy about it a year ago, and this being the first time one can talk about it publicly without undermining a grantee. Since the PR costs have by this stage largely(?) been paid, it seems quite plausible that if the cost-effectiveness analysis had come back mildly positive he’d have continued to feel regret about not having averted the past issue, while now thinking it was right to continue support.
Thanks, that’s very helpful, though if you think it’s mostly because the PR cost has already been paid, then that does provide little solace under my worldview. Let’s assume the PR costs were still ongoing, do you think it would have then flipped the decision?