I’m not privy to the details of the assessment that OP did, but I was briefly consulted (as a courtesy) before this decision was made, and I understand that there was a proper cost-benefit analysis driving their decisions here.
Compared to when the original decision was made, a few things look different to me:
I originally underestimated the staffing and maintenance costs for the project
(I’m still not sure whether there might have been an accessible “shoestring” version)
After what happened with FTX, money is more constrained, which means it’s less desirable to look for ways to leverage money into things happening
I think there were somewhat fewer really excellent events than I was hoping for
Although not to undersell things:
There were many events that I feel good about having happened, and several that I feel great about
Some of the biggest benefits may have been counterfactually causing very valuable events — but this is hard to quantify well, and could drive differing judgements about the value of the project
That said, if I dug into the details, I don’t know that I’d overall agree with the decision to stop running and sell. I think the project was on an upward trajectory as it sorted out internal processes and infrastructure, and built capacity to bring in and support strong workshop directors. I think that by default that trajectory would have continued, alongside a broad trend towards bigger communities and a corresponding greater supply of strong events. My best guess is that continuing to fund it might have looked unwise-in-retrospect from 2026 (a 2-year timescale) but quite wise-in-retrospect by the early 2030s (~5–10 year timescale). But (i) I could easily be wrong about some part of this picture; (ii) it seems reasonable for this not to be the standard OP evaluates it by; and (iii) AI timelines could complicate things. In any case, the above factors make it look like a less attractive proposition than it seemed at the time of purchase (when I thought it was a clear-cut good idea).
Is your sense that if the cost-effectiveness estimate had come back positive, but not overwhelmingly positive (let’s say like a 70th percentile OP grant-dollar in the last year), that this would have flipped the decision?
Given that not vetoing this grant made Alexander’s top list of decisions he regrets, mostly because of the negative optics-aspects, I would be surprised if the cost-effectiveness estimate was actually a crux here.
I don’t really know (and have had almost no interactions with Alexander). But it would be unsurprising to me if that would have flipped the decision.
Basically: Alexander’s views seem compatible with a real felt regret after the controversy about it a year ago, and this being the first time one can talk about it publicly without undermining a grantee. Since the PR costs have by this stage largely(?) been paid, it seems quite plausible that if the cost-effectiveness analysis had come back mildly positive he’d have continued to feel regret about not having averted the past issue, while now thinking it was right to continue support.
Thanks, that’s very helpful, though if you think it’s mostly because the PR cost has already been paid, then that does provide little solace under my worldview. Let’s assume the PR costs were still ongoing, do you think it would have then flipped the decision?
For context: After working full-time in EA meta for >3 years, I’ve been thinking about renting or buying property in/near Berlin or in a cheaper place in Europe to facilitate EA/longtermist events, co-working and maybe also co-living. I know many others are thinking about this too, some of whom area already making plans, and such retrospectives would be really helpful to inform our decisions. If you prefer not to share it publicly, you can also email me.
From the limited info I have, Wytham Abbey seemed a good idea at the time, and I appreciate you going for it! The decision to sell was probably pretty hard to make, I hope all involved feel good about it now.
Is there going to be a post-mortem including an explanation for the decision to sell?
I’m not privy to the details of the assessment that OP did, but I was briefly consulted (as a courtesy) before this decision was made, and I understand that there was a proper cost-benefit analysis driving their decisions here.
Compared to when the original decision was made, a few things look different to me:
I originally underestimated the staffing and maintenance costs for the project
(I’m still not sure whether there might have been an accessible “shoestring” version)
After what happened with FTX, money is more constrained, which means it’s less desirable to look for ways to leverage money into things happening
I think there were somewhat fewer really excellent events than I was hoping for
Although not to undersell things:
There were many events that I feel good about having happened, and several that I feel great about
Some of the biggest benefits may have been counterfactually causing very valuable events — but this is hard to quantify well, and could drive differing judgements about the value of the project
That said, if I dug into the details, I don’t know that I’d overall agree with the decision to stop running and sell. I think the project was on an upward trajectory as it sorted out internal processes and infrastructure, and built capacity to bring in and support strong workshop directors. I think that by default that trajectory would have continued, alongside a broad trend towards bigger communities and a corresponding greater supply of strong events. My best guess is that continuing to fund it might have looked unwise-in-retrospect from 2026 (a 2-year timescale) but quite wise-in-retrospect by the early 2030s (~5–10 year timescale). But (i) I could easily be wrong about some part of this picture; (ii) it seems reasonable for this not to be the standard OP evaluates it by; and (iii) AI timelines could complicate things. In any case, the above factors make it look like a less attractive proposition than it seemed at the time of purchase (when I thought it was a clear-cut good idea).
Is your sense that if the cost-effectiveness estimate had come back positive, but not overwhelmingly positive (let’s say like a 70th percentile OP grant-dollar in the last year), that this would have flipped the decision?
Given that not vetoing this grant made Alexander’s top list of decisions he regrets, mostly because of the negative optics-aspects, I would be surprised if the cost-effectiveness estimate was actually a crux here.
I don’t really know (and have had almost no interactions with Alexander). But it would be unsurprising to me if that would have flipped the decision.
Basically: Alexander’s views seem compatible with a real felt regret after the controversy about it a year ago, and this being the first time one can talk about it publicly without undermining a grantee. Since the PR costs have by this stage largely(?) been paid, it seems quite plausible that if the cost-effectiveness analysis had come back mildly positive he’d have continued to feel regret about not having averted the past issue, while now thinking it was right to continue support.
Thanks, that’s very helpful, though if you think it’s mostly because the PR cost has already been paid, then that does provide little solace under my worldview. Let’s assume the PR costs were still ongoing, do you think it would have then flipped the decision?
+1, I’d find this very useful too!
For context: After working full-time in EA meta for >3 years, I’ve been thinking about renting or buying property in/near Berlin or in a cheaper place in Europe to facilitate EA/longtermist events, co-working and maybe also co-living. I know many others are thinking about this too, some of whom area already making plans, and such retrospectives would be really helpful to inform our decisions. If you prefer not to share it publicly, you can also email me.
From the limited info I have, Wytham Abbey seemed a good idea at the time, and I appreciate you going for it! The decision to sell was probably pretty hard to make, I hope all involved feel good about it now.