Candidate Scoring System, Second Release

This is the sig­nifi­cantly im­proved sec­ond edi­tion of CSS, again look­ing at the pres­i­den­tial pri­maries for the US 2020 elec­tion.

PDF report

Ex­cel spreadsheet

Here I copy the in­tro­duc­tory sec­tions for con­ve­nience:

Preface

The Can­di­date Scor­ing Sys­tem (CSS) is a method for se­lect­ing preferred can­di­dates in elec­tions. It is based on Effec­tive Altru­ist (EA) ethics and method­ol­ogy. Of course, op­pos­ing poli­ti­cal po­si­tions are still valid in the EA move­ment and there is room for re­spectable dis­agree­ment. Other peo­ple in the EA move­ment may have differ­ent un­der­stand­ings of the fac­tual im­pacts of var­i­ous poli­ti­cal ac­tions, and they may have differ­ent val­ues re­gard­ing the ap­pro­pri­ate goals of gov­ern­ment. But we ap­proach the cen­tral, most im­por­tant policy ques­tion – how to max­i­mize global well-be­ing – by gath­er­ing opinions and re­search from au­thor­i­ties in a wide range of do­mains, then mod­el­ing them to­gether with our own care­ful judg­ment to fill in the gaps.

CSS1 was re­leased on March 5, 2019, es­tab­lish­ing ba­sic policy prefer­ences and pro­vid­ing ten­ta­tive scor­ing of pres­i­den­tial can­di­dates. For CSS2 we have deep­ened our anal­y­sis of policy ques­tions, gath­ered more in­for­ma­tion about poli­ti­cal can­di­dates, ex­panded the num­ber of can­di­dates un­der con­sid­er­a­tion, added calcu­la­tions of elec­tion prob­a­bil­ities and coun­ter­fac­tu­als, and sim­plified the in­for­ma­tion into a sin­gle re­port with an ac­com­pa­ny­ing Ex­cel model.

This pro­ject is limited by the con­straints of time and man­power against the vast breadth, depth and com­plex­ity of the prob­lems that it tack­les. There­fore, many ar­gu­ments and ev­i­dence will be miss­ing. This does not mean the pro­ject is nec­es­sar­ily wrong or bi­ased, it just means we haven’t yet in­cluded as much con­tent and re­search as we would like to. It is a work in progress and open to in­put from oth­ers. We are un­cer­tain about much of this con­tent, but we min­i­mize hedg­ing lan­guage for the sake of read­abil­ity. If some rele­vant in­for­ma­tion is miss­ing, please sub­mit ideas and con­tent to im­prove the next ver­sion – ev­ery­thing here is sub­ject to re­vi­sion and elab­o­ra­tion.

CSS is an in­de­pen­dent vol­un­teer pro­ject.

Sum­mary for Vot­ers and Activists

CSS2 makes the fol­low­ing recom­men­da­tions:

· John De­laney should be sup­ported if there are tractable op­por­tu­ni­ties to do so, par­tic­u­larly in Iowa.

· Cory Booker should be sup­ported if De­laney’s can­di­dacy is con­sid­ered in­tractable.

· Po­ten­tial Repub­li­can challengers to Pres­i­dent Trump should be en­couraged and sup­ported if a real chance ap­pears, es­pe­cially John Ka­sich.

Our recom­men­da­tions are based on es­ti­mates of the ex­pected value of chang­ing the out­comes of the pri­mary races. We ap­proach this ques­tion by first es­ti­mat­ing the de­sir­a­bil­ity of each can­di­date as a po­ten­tial pres­i­dent, yield­ing pres­i­dency scores. We then fac­tor in the nom­i­na­tion and elec­tion chances of all their com­peti­tors to pro­duce nom­i­na­tion scores rep­re­sent­ing the differ­ence in the ex­pected elec­tion out­come when the can­di­date wins or loses in the pri­maries.