Alameda Research is going to be worth nothing after today, zero, nada, nyet. I will confidently bet good money that their trading losses on various shitcoins (Solana and ofc FTT itself) are what is responsible for FTX going down (i.e essentially Alameda was using FTX customer deposits as a cheap source of capital). This is of course incredibly unethical and doubtless illegal in every jurisdiction, but hey, some altruism was done along the way? Of course no one is going to buy Alameda itself because it’s almost certainly a giant cesspit of vast liabilities & worthless assets.
Btw, SBF would never sell in a fire sale to CZ (who he hates!) unless FTX had massive solvency issues, not just a short-term liquidity problem. This thing was valued at 32 billion just a few months ago, if SBF could prove it was all a liquidity problem he could raise the capital to get through this and keep things together IMO. That he can’t do so indicates that FTX is almost certainly deeply insolvent, probably as a result of doing some incredibly unethical and illegal things. The lawsuits are going keep everyone busy for a few years, though!
what operationalization would you accept? Perhaps at some point in the next 5 years a court finds that FTX/Alameda were doing this? Perhaps CZ/Binance publicly anouncing that they’ve found this to be the case when examining FTX’s books?
FWIW I would be hesitant to bet on this because I would lose the bet in worlds where the EA community has less money. Not to say it wouldn’t be worth it at sufficiently good odds.
Sabs — do you think you want to write (negatively) about cryptocurrency in a focused way, as a longer form piece? I think this would be valuable compared to a lot of smaller comments.
Huh, I took ‘confidently’ to mean you’d be willing to offer much better odds than 1:1.
I’m going to try to stop paying so much attention to the story while it unfolds, which means I’m retracting my interest in betting. Feel free to call this a win (as with Joel).
I think some slightly less incendiary language here would be appropriate.
For example, the term ‘shitcoin’ is a very loaded term from Bitcoin Maximalists that’s typically used to derogate every crypto token other than Bitcoin itself.
Consider toning down the emotional rhetoric and making these points a bit more dispassionately?
Alameda Research is going to be worth nothing after today, zero, nada, nyet. I will confidently bet good money that their trading losses on various shitcoins (Solana and ofc FTT itself) are what is responsible for FTX going down (i.e essentially Alameda was using FTX customer deposits as a cheap source of capital). This is of course incredibly unethical and doubtless illegal in every jurisdiction, but hey, some altruism was done along the way? Of course no one is going to buy Alameda itself because it’s almost certainly a giant cesspit of vast liabilities & worthless assets.
Btw, SBF would never sell in a fire sale to CZ (who he hates!) unless FTX had massive solvency issues, not just a short-term liquidity problem. This thing was valued at 32 billion just a few months ago, if SBF could prove it was all a liquidity problem he could raise the capital to get through this and keep things together IMO. That he can’t do so indicates that FTX is almost certainly deeply insolvent, probably as a result of doing some incredibly unethical and illegal things. The lawsuits are going keep everyone busy for a few years, though!
Can you give an operationalization of this, and how much money you are willing to bet?
what operationalization would you accept? Perhaps at some point in the next 5 years a court finds that FTX/Alameda were doing this? Perhaps CZ/Binance publicly anouncing that they’ve found this to be the case when examining FTX’s books?
FWIW I would be hesitant to bet on this because I would lose the bet in worlds where the EA community has less money. Not to say it wouldn’t be worth it at sufficiently good odds.
Yes, interested in taking the over!
no longer endorsed, huh?
The site has been taken private. https://www.alameda-research.com/
Sabs — do you think you want to write (negatively) about cryptocurrency in a focused way, as a longer form piece? I think this would be valuable compared to a lot of smaller comments.
how much are you paying
removed earlier today. well done!
If there’s any money left over after you’ve agree a line with Joel and Nuno, I’ve got next.
we can do 10k at evens
Huh, I took ‘confidently’ to mean you’d be willing to offer much better odds than 1:1.
I’m going to try to stop paying so much attention to the story while it unfolds, which means I’m retracting my interest in betting. Feel free to call this a win (as with Joel).
well of course I have to try to start negotiating the bet at completely terrible odds for you, how else am I suppose to make any money?
how much money are you willing to bet, huh?
I think some slightly less incendiary language here would be appropriate.
For example, the term ‘shitcoin’ is a very loaded term from Bitcoin Maximalists that’s typically used to derogate every crypto token other than Bitcoin itself.
Consider toning down the emotional rhetoric and making these points a bit more dispassionately?
well Bitcoin is also a shitcoin, yes, they all are (apart from USDC or other stablecoins operating on a simple money market fund model).