Here are some reasons to think AMF could still be worth giving to:
AMF net distributions come in large (and varied) sizes, and they generally only arrange distributions after they have the money to cover them. This means that a larger cash reserve may open up extra opportunities for distributions that they wouldn’t have with a smaller cash reserve; it’s therefore not lossless to just wait until they run down the cash reserves before giving. Of course the opportunity value created by a marginal dollar in their cash reserves may well be lower now than when the cash reserves were lower, but it’s not obvious how big this effect is (it depends on the distribution of prices of possible net distribution opportunities).
Also note that incentives as a private donor differ from the incentives GiveWell has in making recommendations (at least as far as risk-aversion goes). GiveWell is in the business not just of making good recommendations, but of building a reputation for making good recommendations. A small chance that money going to AMF now will be wasted should act as a small discounting factor on the expected value for a private donor—but rears much larger than this for GiveWell, for whom the bad outcome translates not just to the waste of donations, but a reduction in trust from donors who say with hindsight that they should have known better.
Additionally, GiveWell have to consider whether they have enough room for more funding for all GiveWell donors (i.e. $ millions per year), which is more difficult case to make than simply having room for more funding from a single donor (presumably $ hundreds or $ thousands per year)
Some of it I think depends on the “if all people who thought similarly did this” principle. If enough small individual donors all thought there was enough RMRF for their small, individual donation, they might collectively run out of RMRF.
True, though GiveWell give the impression of that AMF have room for more funding even for small individual donors, given their cash reserve. Does anyone know whether that’s not in fact what they think?
Here are some reasons to think AMF could still be worth giving to:
AMF net distributions come in large (and varied) sizes, and they generally only arrange distributions after they have the money to cover them. This means that a larger cash reserve may open up extra opportunities for distributions that they wouldn’t have with a smaller cash reserve; it’s therefore not lossless to just wait until they run down the cash reserves before giving. Of course the opportunity value created by a marginal dollar in their cash reserves may well be lower now than when the cash reserves were lower, but it’s not obvious how big this effect is (it depends on the distribution of prices of possible net distribution opportunities).
Also note that incentives as a private donor differ from the incentives GiveWell has in making recommendations (at least as far as risk-aversion goes). GiveWell is in the business not just of making good recommendations, but of building a reputation for making good recommendations. A small chance that money going to AMF now will be wasted should act as a small discounting factor on the expected value for a private donor—but rears much larger than this for GiveWell, for whom the bad outcome translates not just to the waste of donations, but a reduction in trust from donors who say with hindsight that they should have known better.
Additionally, GiveWell have to consider whether they have enough room for more funding for all GiveWell donors (i.e. $ millions per year), which is more difficult case to make than simply having room for more funding from a single donor (presumably $ hundreds or $ thousands per year)
Some of it I think depends on the “if all people who thought similarly did this” principle. If enough small individual donors all thought there was enough RMRF for their small, individual donation, they might collectively run out of RMRF.
True, though GiveWell give the impression of that AMF have room for more funding even for small individual donors, given their cash reserve. Does anyone know whether that’s not in fact what they think?
My comment on Niel’s post above also should be addressed to you. :)
Thanks Owen, that’s helpful.