I agree that “leaked” is more precise, but I don’t think “predicted” is inaccurate. To me prediction involves saying things that will happen, for whatever reason. I think I’d disagree if it said “with no secret information”.
But did the market predict that a letter would be published? Yes.
Insider trading doesn’t change my mind on this.
Feels like you think that “predicted” implies “predicted in a wholesome/clever way”. I do not think this. For me predicted is just “said it before it happened”. Mainly because predicting things you are certain of is absolutely a skill—sometimes those things don’t happen. If you get this wrong, it is a failure of prediction.
The commonsense meaning of ‘I predicted X’ is that I used some other information to assess that X was likely. ‘I saw the announcement of X before it was published’ is not that. I agree that it wasn’t literally false. It just gave a false impression. Hence ‘pretty clickbaity/misleading’.
I agree that “leaked” is more precise, but I don’t think “predicted” is inaccurate. To me prediction involves saying things that will happen, for whatever reason. I think I’d disagree if it said “with no secret information”.
But did the market predict that a letter would be published? Yes.
Insider trading doesn’t change my mind on this.
Feels like you think that “predicted” implies “predicted in a wholesome/clever way”. I do not think this. For me predicted is just “said it before it happened”. Mainly because predicting things you are certain of is absolutely a skill—sometimes those things don’t happen. If you get this wrong, it is a failure of prediction.
The commonsense meaning of ‘I predicted X’ is that I used some other information to assess that X was likely. ‘I saw the announcement of X before it was published’ is not that. I agree that it wasn’t literally false. It just gave a false impression. Hence ‘pretty clickbaity/misleading’.