‘Predicted’ in the title is pretty clickbaity/misleading given that the market was created and driven by insider traders. ‘Knew About’ or ‘Leaked Information About’ seem much more accurate.
Otherwise, I found this very interesting. I hadn’t heard of this market before, and appreciate the analysis of what seems like it might be a very important case study, both for how to handle the leaking of embargoed or otherwise sensitive information and for what to do about insider trading.
I agree that “leaked” is more precise, but I don’t think “predicted” is inaccurate. To me prediction involves saying things that will happen, for whatever reason. I think I’d disagree if it said “with no secret information”.
But did the market predict that a letter would be published? Yes.
Insider trading doesn’t change my mind on this.
Feels like you think that “predicted” implies “predicted in a wholesome/clever way”. I do not think this. For me predicted is just “said it before it happened”. Mainly because predicting things you are certain of is absolutely a skill—sometimes those things don’t happen. If you get this wrong, it is a failure of prediction.
The commonsense meaning of ‘I predicted X’ is that I used some other information to assess that X was likely. ‘I saw the announcement of X before it was published’ is not that. I agree that it wasn’t literally false. It just gave a false impression. Hence ‘pretty clickbaity/misleading’.
‘Predicted’ in the title is pretty clickbaity/misleading given that the market was created and driven by insider traders. ‘Knew About’ or ‘Leaked Information About’ seem much more accurate.
Otherwise, I found this very interesting. I hadn’t heard of this market before, and appreciate the analysis of what seems like it might be a very important case study, both for how to handle the leaking of embargoed or otherwise sensitive information and for what to do about insider trading.
Thanks for the feedback! I’ve updated the title accordingly.
Nice!
I agree that “leaked” is more precise, but I don’t think “predicted” is inaccurate. To me prediction involves saying things that will happen, for whatever reason. I think I’d disagree if it said “with no secret information”.
But did the market predict that a letter would be published? Yes.
Insider trading doesn’t change my mind on this.
Feels like you think that “predicted” implies “predicted in a wholesome/clever way”. I do not think this. For me predicted is just “said it before it happened”. Mainly because predicting things you are certain of is absolutely a skill—sometimes those things don’t happen. If you get this wrong, it is a failure of prediction.
The commonsense meaning of ‘I predicted X’ is that I used some other information to assess that X was likely. ‘I saw the announcement of X before it was published’ is not that. I agree that it wasn’t literally false. It just gave a false impression. Hence ‘pretty clickbaity/misleading’.