I suspect that the main use of forecasting is if you need a probability for something and you don’t really have time to look into it yourself or you wouldn’t trust your judgement even if you did.
Sort of, but that also doesn’t capture the significant accuracy and efficiency benefits the process of structured reasoning and communication that forecasting enables. There’s substantial risks and issues of “just looking into an issue yourself”—especially when you are more confident in your judgement (because that’s a clear risk of confirmation bias/overconfidence).
The main use of forecasting is in utilising the core scientific benefits it can bring as above into, to help real world decision makers. But fundamentally, that hasn’t been funded—instead we’ve funded tournaments and research.
I suspect that the main use of forecasting is if you need a probability for something and you don’t really have time to look into it yourself or you wouldn’t trust your judgement even if you did.
I think this is great and makes sense, but this isn’t where 90 percent of the money is going.
Sort of, but that also doesn’t capture the significant accuracy and efficiency benefits the process of structured reasoning and communication that forecasting enables. There’s substantial risks and issues of “just looking into an issue yourself”—especially when you are more confident in your judgement (because that’s a clear risk of confirmation bias/overconfidence).
The main use of forecasting is in utilising the core scientific benefits it can bring as above into, to help real world decision makers. But fundamentally, that hasn’t been funded—instead we’ve funded tournaments and research.