For Kalshi specifically, it seems to have essentially become a backdoor to deregulate sports gambling in every US state. The mass deregulation of gambling in the US this decade feels harmful and like something we’ll probably really regret (legalisation seems fine but not like this).
It doesn’t seem popular to criticise the gambling aspects of prediction markets here, but it does seem strange to me that EAs seem to care a lot about reducing harms from tobacco and alcohol, but seem indifferent to gambling.
Interesting, is sports betting plausibly as bad as tobacco/alcohol in low-income countries?
Like, I think sports betting is plausibly one of the “worst businesses” for the US, comparable to alcohol/tobacco—but my impression is that the EAs that care about tobacco/alcohol don’t care very much about interventions in high-income countries relative to low-income countries.
Gambling interventions could be cost-effective, in some situations. Especially for larger countries yet to liberalize gambling/betting (like Brazil, India)? Also, now might be a window to lobby for stricter regulations on prediction markets.
Random fun fact: Indonesia has banned gambling, but is the only country where tobacco advertising is still legal.
I don’t have any data to back this up but I wouldn’t be surprised if in Sub-Saharan Africa sports betting was worse than tobacco and on par with alcohol, it being incredibly widespread and normalized.
Interesting point, and I suspect that there are lower hanging fruit in gambling too: some of the most addictive forms (e.g. fixed odds betting terminals in the UK) are not some intrinsic part of the culture but relatively new innovations promoted by a mere handful of companies and so regulators are much happier grappling with them (in the case of fixed odds betting terminals, I suspect restrictions on how much could be bet per spin were even more popular with the people who actually use them on a regular basis than the wider public!).
In that respect it’s perhaps a lot like animal rights activism requires campaigns focused on winnable battles to be effective (and it might appeal to some people that already have that lobbying skillset)
For Kalshi specifically, it seems to have essentially become a backdoor to deregulate sports gambling in every US state. The mass deregulation of gambling in the US this decade feels harmful and like something we’ll probably really regret (legalisation seems fine but not like this).
It doesn’t seem popular to criticise the gambling aspects of prediction markets here, but it does seem strange to me that EAs seem to care a lot about reducing harms from tobacco and alcohol, but seem indifferent to gambling.
Interesting, is sports betting plausibly as bad as tobacco/alcohol in low-income countries?
Like, I think sports betting is plausibly one of the “worst businesses” for the US, comparable to alcohol/tobacco—but my impression is that the EAs that care about tobacco/alcohol don’t care very much about interventions in high-income countries relative to low-income countries.
BOTEC: 4.2 percent of suicides in the state of Victoria in Australia were gambling-related. 19.4 percent of suicides in Hong Kong were gambling-related. 720,000 suicides happen every year. Let’s say 10 percent of all suicides globally are related to gambling. That would be 72,000 gambling-related suicides.
Tobacco causes over 7 million deaths per year, while alcohol kills 2.6 million people per year.
Gambling interventions could be cost-effective, in some situations. Especially for larger countries yet to liberalize gambling/betting (like Brazil, India)? Also, now might be a window to lobby for stricter regulations on prediction markets.
Random fun fact: Indonesia has banned gambling, but is the only country where tobacco advertising is still legal.
Random tangent: tobacco advertising also legal in Andorra
I don’t have any data to back this up but I wouldn’t be surprised if in Sub-Saharan Africa sports betting was worse than tobacco and on par with alcohol, it being incredibly widespread and normalized.
It’s bad but I don’t think that bad. Tobacco and alcohol are far worse than most other realize.
Interesting point, and I suspect that there are lower hanging fruit in gambling too: some of the most addictive forms (e.g. fixed odds betting terminals in the UK) are not some intrinsic part of the culture but relatively new innovations promoted by a mere handful of companies and so regulators are much happier grappling with them (in the case of fixed odds betting terminals, I suspect restrictions on how much could be bet per spin were even more popular with the people who actually use them on a regular basis than the wider public!).
In that respect it’s perhaps a lot like animal rights activism requires campaigns focused on winnable battles to be effective (and it might appeal to some people that already have that lobbying skillset)