Like, so what if AGI arrives in 2035 versus 2038? I actually totally agree with this intuition.
I don’t think this is a well specified intuition. It would probably be really valuable if people could forecast the ability to build/deploy AGI to within roughly 1 year, as it could inform many people’s career planning and policy analysis (e.g., when to clamp down on export controls). In this regard, an error/uncertainty of 3 years could potentially have a huge impact.
However, I think a better explanation for the intuition I (and possibly you) have is tractability—that such precision is not practical at the moment, and/or would have such diminishing marginal returns so as to make other work more valuable.
It would probably be really valuable if people could forecast the ability to build/deploy AGI to within roughly 1 year, as it could inform many people’s career planning and policy analysis (e.g., when to clamp down on export controls). In this regard, an error/uncertainty of 3 years could potentially have a huge impact.
Yeah, being able to have such forecasting precision would be amazing. It’s too bad it’s unrealistic (what forecasting process would enable such magic?). It would mean we could see exactly when it’s coming and make extremely tailored plans that could be super high-leverage.
I don’t think this is a well specified intuition. It would probably be really valuable if people could forecast the ability to build/deploy AGI to within roughly 1 year, as it could inform many people’s career planning and policy analysis (e.g., when to clamp down on export controls). In this regard, an error/uncertainty of 3 years could potentially have a huge impact.
However, I think a better explanation for the intuition I (and possibly you) have is tractability—that such precision is not practical at the moment, and/or would have such diminishing marginal returns so as to make other work more valuable.
Yeah, being able to have such forecasting precision would be amazing. It’s too bad it’s unrealistic (what forecasting process would enable such magic?). It would mean we could see exactly when it’s coming and make extremely tailored plans that could be super high-leverage.