It would probably be really valuable if people could forecast the ability to build/deploy AGI to within roughly 1 year, as it could inform many people’s career planning and policy analysis (e.g., when to clamp down on export controls). In this regard, an error/uncertainty of 3 years could potentially have a huge impact.
Yeah, being able to have such forecasting precision would be amazing. It’s too bad it’s unrealistic (what forecasting process would enable such magic?). It would mean we could see exactly when it’s coming and make extremely tailored plans that could be super high-leverage.
Yeah, being able to have such forecasting precision would be amazing. It’s too bad it’s unrealistic (what forecasting process would enable such magic?). It would mean we could see exactly when it’s coming and make extremely tailored plans that could be super high-leverage.