Announcing The Prediction Post

[David Glidden]

Link post

About The Prediction Post

The Prediction Post is a daily digest of news headlines accompanied by relevant prediction markets. The intent is to give news consumers quantitative context on the top headlines of the day. Think of it as a Bayesian’s version of morning headline newsletters like CNN’s 5 Things or The New York Times’ The Morning.

See the full back catalog at the link above. Each newsletter covers at least one headline across six different categories: World, U.S., Business & Tech, Science & Health, Entertainment, and Sports.

The format:

1. Headline—Publication(link)

2. Embedded prediction market (so far exclusively from Manifold)

3. Brief commentary/​insight about the relation between the headline and the prediction market

Here is a “best of” sampling of The Prediction Post:

Sample Edition of The Prediction Post

🌍 World

(From February 28th, 2024, when odds were at 80%)

Sweden clears final hurdle in bid to join NATO after Hungary approves accession—CNN

We’re not out of the woods yet, says the prediction markets. From the above market’s author: “Edit 26/​2/​24: The Hungarian parliament has finally voted to allow Sweden to join NATO but this still needs to be ratified by the Hungarian President, and that position is currently vacant. Orban could delay the naming of a new president precisely to prevent Sweden from joining, and for this reason this market is not resolved just yet.”

🇺🇸 U.S.

(From February 26th, 2024, after closing YES)

South Carolina primary: Donald Trump easily defeats Nikki Haley in her home state—BBC

Trump prevails after a low of 10% chance back in December 2022.

🏦 Business & Tech

(From February 29th, 2024, when odds were at 19%)

Wendy’s Makes It Clear After Backlash: No Surge Pricing—The Wall Street Journal

Recent market drops from height of ~40% on backpedaling comments from burger chain.

🧪 Science & Health

(From February 22nd, 2024, when odds were at 68%)

IM-1 ‘Odysseus’ lander on track to Moon landing on Friday morning—Cosmos

Traders still hesitant to declare victory for successful soft-landing on the moon.

📺 Entertainment

(From February 22nd, 2024, when odds were at 96%)

Is Dune 2 An All-Time Sci-Fi Masterpiece? 10 Biggest Takeaways From Glowing Reviews—Screen Rant

Reviews confirm quality of Dune sequel, matching traders’ sentiment since last summer.

🏟️ Sports

(From February 29th, 2024, when odds were at 2%)

🏎️ Christian Horner cleared of misconduct by Red Bull Racing parent company—The Washington Post

Odds of Red Bull team principal resigning fall from ~40% on news.

FAQs

How are headlines and related prediction markets chosen?

Each day I browse Google News to find at least one news headline from each category (World, U.S., Business & Tech, Science & Health, Entertainment, Sports) and then search Manifold for a matching prediction market that provides additional insight, context, or truth about the news item.

For example, in the February 28th, 2024 edition, the headline Biden says he hopes there’ll be a ceasefire in Gaza by next Monday—CNN was accompanied with the Manifold prediction market Will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict by next Monday?, giving the news consumer a quantified understanding that the actual likelihood of a ceasefire by that date (i.e. Biden’s “hope”) was 26% at the time.

There are often many news outlets reporting on the same story, so I’ll cherry pick the publication providing a headline that best contrasts with or matches the prediction market.

Why are all the prediction markets from Manifold and not Metaculus, PredictIt, Polymarket, GJ Open, Kalshi, or elsewhere?

I’m most active on Manifold, they have the widest variety of markets (decreasing the amount of time I have to search for one that matches my chosen news headline), and their markets embed natively into Substack posts.

Metaculus questions embed natively into Substack too, so I may include them in the future if I can’t find a relevant one on Manifold.

PredictIt, Polymarket, GJ Open, and Kalshi markets don’t seem to embed natively in Substack posts, but I’d consider using them in the future if they did.

How often is The Prediction Post published?

The Prediction Post is currently a daily newsletter sent every morning around 7am Eastern, though sometimes I take a day off here or there depending on personal obligations.

Is The Prediction Post a serious project?

I’m a longtime forecasting and prediction market hobbyist and advocate, so this is a bit of a passion project for me while I’m on leave from work for a few months, with no current plans to monetize.

If you are interested in being a contributor (i.e. being responsible for a given day(s) each week), let’s chat! No experience needed. Currently my process takes 30-60 minutes per day. As such, I’m very keen on divvying up the work to make this a bit more manageable to continue long-term, especially when I return to work full time. If you’re interested in getting involved, simply reply via email to any edition of The Prediction Post and follow up if you don’t hear from me after a few days.

What inspired The Prediction Post?

For years I feel like I’ve heard requests for a forecasting/​prediction market-based newspaper/​media source (I tried to find tangible evidence of this but nothing came up in a quick search). This is my minimal-effort take on that idea. I was also inspired by the great work done on The Base Rate Times by @vandemonian. 🍻

I have other questions/​feedback...

Great! Drop a comment here, reply via email to any edition of The Prediction Post, or send me a message on Manifold.