”For Metaculus, another constraint is to have questions that interest forecasters. Interestingness is necessary to build a community around forecasting that may later have a large instrumental value.”
Nitpick: I think interestingness is very helpful but not necessary. Other potential incentives to forecast include the opportunity to be impactful/helpful, status/respect on Metaculus and maybe elsewhere, Metaculus points, getting feedback that improves epistemics, sense of mastery, and money (e.g. tournament prizes).
I agree, but I do think that interestingness is important. In particular, putting on my forecaster hat, I think that avoiding drudgerous questions is very important.
Nitpick: I think interestingness is very helpful but not necessary. Other potential incentives to forecast include the opportunity to be impactful/helpful, status/respect on Metaculus and maybe elsewhere, Metaculus points, getting feedback that improves epistemics, sense of mastery, and money (e.g. tournament prizes).
I agree, but I do think that interestingness is important. In particular, putting on my forecaster hat, I think that avoiding drudgerous questions is very important.