alexherwix

Karma: 578

alexherwix 10 Mar 2024 19:33 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Matthew_Barnett’s comment on: Clarifying two uses of “alignment”
I have never said that how we treat nonhuman animals is “solely” due to differences in power. The point that I have made is that AIs are not humans and I have tried to illustrate that differences between species tend to matter in culture and social systems.

But we don’t even have to go to species differences, ethnic differences are already enough to create quite a bit of friction in our societies (e.g., racism, caste systems, etc.). Why don’t we all engage in mutually beneficial trade and cooperate to live happily ever after?

Because while we have mostly converging needs in a biological sense, we have different values and beliefs. It still roughly works out in the grand scheme of things because cultural checks and balances have evolved in environments where we had strongly overlapping values and interests. So most humans have comparable degrees of power or are kept in check by those checks and balances. That was basically our societal process of getting to value alignment but as you can probably tell by looking at the news, this process has not reached a satisfactory quality, yet. We have come far but it’s still a shit show out there. The powerful take what they can get and often only give a sh*t to the degree that they actually feel consequences from it.

So, my point is that your “loose” definition of value alignment is an illusion if you are talking about super powerful actors that have divergent needs and don’t share your values. They will play along as long as it suits them but will stop doing it as soon as an alternative more aligned with their needs and values is more convenient. And the key point here is that AIs are not humans and that they have very different needs from us. If they become much more powerful than us, only their values can keep them in check in the long run.

alexherwix 10 Mar 2024 19:02 UTC
2 points
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in reply to: Maxwell Tabarrok’s comment on: Clarifying two uses of “alignment”
But what makes you think that this can be a longterm solution if the needs and capabilities of the involved parties are strongly divergent as in human vs AI scenarios?

I agree that trading can probably work for a couple of years, maybe decades, but if the AIs want something different from us in the long term what should stop them from getting this?

I don’t see a way around value alignment in the strict sense (ironically this could also involve AIs aligning our values to theirs similar to how we have aligned dogs).

alexherwix 10 Mar 2024 18:39 UTC
2 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: Matthew_Barnett’s comment on: Clarifying two uses of “alignment”
The difference is that a superintelligence or even an AGI is not human and they will likely need very different environments from us to truly thrive. Ask factory farmed animals or basically any other kind of nonhuman animal if our world is in a state of violance or war… As soon as strong power differentials and diverging needs show up the value cocreation narrative starts to lose it’s magic. It works great for humans but it doesn’t really work with other species that are not very close and aligned with us. Dogs and cats have arguably fared quite well but only at the price of becoming strongly adapted to OUR needs and desires.

In the end, if you don’t have anything valuable to offer there is not much more you can do besides hoping for, or ideally ensuring, value alignment in the strict sense. Your scenario may work well for some time but it’s not a longterm solution.

alexherwix 28 Nov 2023 9:19 UTC
6 points
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in reply to: Odyssean Institute’s comment on: The Odyssean Process
This reminds me of the work on the Planungszelle in Germany but with some more bells and whistles. One difference that I see is that afaik the core idea in more traditional deliberation processes is that the process itself is also understandable by the average citizen. This gives it some grounding and legitimacy in that all people involved in the process can cross-check each other and make sure that the outcome is not manipulated. You seem to be diverging from this ideal a little bit in the sense that you seem to require the use of sophisticated statistical techniques, which potentially cannot be understood or cross-checked by a general cross-section of the population.

Maybe it would make sense to use a two-stage procedure where in the first (preparation) stage you gain general agreement on what process to run in the second (work) stage? Or looking at your model to actually have the citizen assembly be involved in managing and controlling the expert modeling process or have at least multiple different expert teams provide models to the citizen assembly. Otherwise it seems like you have a single point of failure where the democratic aspect of the process can be neutralized potentially quite easily.

I am just speculating though, haven’t had time to look at the white paper in detail. Maybe/probably you have thought about those aspects already!

alexherwix 16 Nov 2023 18:48 UTC
−2 points
1 ∶ 1
in reply to: MikhailSamin’s comment on: It’s OK to eat shrimp: EAs Make Invalid Inferences About Fish Qualia and Moral Patienthood
The key point that I am trying to make is that you seem to argue against our common sense understanding that animals are sentient because they are anatomically similar to us in many respects and also demonstrate behavior that we would expect sentient creatures to have. Rather you come up with your own elaborate requirements that you argue are necessary for a being able to say something about qualia in other beings but then at some point (maybe at the point where you feel comfortable with your conclusions) you stop following your own line of argument through to the end (i.e., qualia somewhere in the causal structure != other humans have qualia) and just revert back to “common sense”, which you have argued against just before as being insufficient in this case. So, your position seems somewhat selective and potentially self-serving with respect to supporting your own beliefs rather than intellectually superior to the common sense understanding.

alexherwix 13 Nov 2023 21:37 UTC
10 points
3 ∶ 1
in reply to: MikhailSamin’s comment on: It’s OK to eat shrimp: EAs Make Invalid Inferences About Fish Qualia and Moral Patienthood
But how can you assume that humans in general have qualia if all the talking about qualia tells you only that qualia exist somewhere in the causal structure? Maybe all talking about qualia derives from a single source? How would you know? For me, this seems to be a kind of a reductio ad absurdum for your entire line of argument.

alexherwix 9 Nov 2023 8:53 UTC
3 points
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on: What we’re missing: the case for structural risks from AI
Thanks for sharing your thoughts! I think you are onto an interesting angle here that could be worthwhile exploring if you are so inclined.
One interesting line of work that you do not seem to be considering at the moment but could be interesting is the work done in the “metacrisis” (or polycrisis) space. See this presentation for an overview but I recommend diving deeper than this to get a better sense of the space. What this perspective is interested in is trying to understand and address the underlying patterns, which create the wicked situation we find ourselves in. They work a lot with concepts like “Moloch” (i.e., multi-polar traps in coordination games), the risk accelerating role of AI or different types of civilizational failure modes (e.g., dystopia vs. catastrophe) we should guard against.
Interesting for you may also be a working paper that I am working on with ALLFED, where we are looking at the digital transformation as a driver of systemic catastrophic risks. We do this based on a simulation model in specific scenarios but then generalize a framework where we suggest that the key features that make digital systems valuable also make them an inherent driver of what we called “the risk of digital fragility”. Our work does not yet elaborate on the role of AI but only the pervasive use of digital systems and services in general. My next steps are to work out the role of AI more clearly and see if/how our digital fragility framework can be put to use to better understand how AI could be contributing to systemic catastrophic risks. You can reach out via PM if you are interested to have a chat about this.

alexherwix 27 Oct 2023 11:42 UTC
3 points
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in reply to: Daniel_Eth’s comment on: Lying is Cowardice, not Strategy
Hey Daniel,

as I also stated in another reply to Nick, I didn’t really mean to diminish the point you raised but to highlight that this is really more of a „meta point“ that’s only tangential to the matter of the issue outlined. My critical reaction was not meant to be against you or the point you raised but the more general community practice / trend of focusing on those points at the expense of engaging the subject matter itself, in particular, when the topic is against mainstream thinking. This I think is somewhat demonstrated by the fact that your comment is by far the most upvoted on an issue that would have far reaching implications if accepted as having some merit.

Hope this makes it clearer. Don’t mean to criticize the object level of your argument, it’s just coincidental that I picked out your comment to illustrate a problematic development that I see.

P.S.: There is also some irony in me posting a meta critique of a meta critique to argue for more object level engagement but that’s life I guess.

alexherwix 27 Oct 2023 11:27 UTC
3 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: NickLaing’s comment on: Lying is Cowardice, not Strategy
Hey Nick,

thanks for your reply. I didn’t mean to say that Daniel didn’t have a point. It’s a reasonable argument to make. I just wanted to highlight that this shouldn’t be the only angle to look at such posts. If you look, his comment is by far the most upvoted and it only addresses a point tangential to the problem at hand. Of course, getting upvoted is not his „fault“. I just felt compelled to highlight that overly focusing on this kind of angle only brings us so far.

Hope that makes it clearer :)

alexherwix 25 Oct 2023 15:58 UTC
−1 points
1 ∶ 4
in reply to: titotal’s comment on: Lying is Cowardice, not Strategy
Your question reminded me of the following quote:

It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It

Maybe here we are talking about an alternative version of this:

It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Say Something When His Salary (or Relevance, Power, Influence, Status) Depends Upon Him Not Saying It

alexherwix 25 Oct 2023 15:46 UTC
−3 points
4 ∶ 7
in reply to: Daniel_Eth’s comment on: Lying is Cowardice, not Strategy
Isn’t your point a little bit pedantic here in the sense that you seem to be perfectly able to understand the key point the post was trying to make, find that point somewhat objectionable or controversial, and thus point to some issues regarding „framing“ rather than really engage deeply with the key points?

Of course, every post could be better written, more thoughtful, etc. but let’s be honest, we are here to make progress on important issues and not to win „argument style points.“ In particular, I find it disturbing that this technique of criticizing style of argument seems to be used quite often to discredit or not engage with „niche“ viewpoints that criticize prevailing „mainstream“ opinions in the EA community. Happened to me as well, when I was suggesting we should look more into whether there are maybe alternatives to purely for profit/closed sourced driven business models for AI ventures. Some people where bending over backwards to argue some concerns that were only tangentially related to the proposal I made (e.g., government can’t be trusted and is incompetent so anything involving regulation could never ever work, etc.). Another case was a post on engagement with “post growth” concepts. There I witnessed something like a wholesale character assassination of the post growth community for whatever reasons. Not saying this happened here but I am simply trying to show a pattern of dismissal of niche viewpoints for spurious, tangential reasons without really engaging with them.

Altogether, wouldn’t it be more productive to have more open minded discussions and practice more of what we preach to the normies out there ourselves (e.g., steel-manning instead of straw-manning)? Critiquing style is fine and has its place but maybe let’s do substance first and style second?

alexherwix 22 Oct 2023 15:36 UTC
5 points
2 ∶ 0
on: Muddling Along Is More Likely Than Dystopia
Thank you for writing this post!

I think it is really important to stay flexible in the mind and to not tie ourselves into race dynamics prematurely. I hope that reasonable voices such as yours can broaden the discourse and maybe even open up doors that were only closed in our minds but never truly locked.

alexherwix 24 Sep 2023 15:56 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Davidmanheim’s comment on: Pausing AI vs Degrowth in rich countries
Ok, I acknowledge that I might have misunderstood your intent. If had taken that your point was to dispassionately explain why people (the EA community) don’t engage with this topic, I myself might have reacted more dispassionately. However, as I read your comments, I don’t think that it was very clear that this is what you were after. Rather, it seemed like you were actively making the case against engaging with the topic and using strawmanning tactics to make your point. I would encourage you to be more clear in this regard in the future, I will try to be more mindful of possible misinterpretation.
I think the key point of my comments stand in that the position you outlined is potentially problematic and ill-informed. To take an other example, you say:
You can cite the study “justifying” limits to growth, (which I’ve discussed on this forum before!) but they said that there would be a collapse decades ago, so it’s hard to take that seriously
The point of simulation models is never to “predict” the future. We are not in the foundation novels and doing psychohistory here. Studies like this are used to look for and examine patterns in behavior. That’s why it is so remarkable that one of the scenarios they developed actually mapped so closely to current developments. That was never the goal of the exercise. So the issue here is that you are misrepresenting the way people are actually building their arguments. If you again are claiming that this is not how you see the situation but how other people see the situation, please make people aware of the errors in their reasoning and don’t continue to propagate false or at least misleading information.
I’m sure there is a steelmanned version of this that deserves some credit, and I initially said that there are some ideas from that movement that deserve credit—but I don’t understand what it has to do with the degrowth movement, which is pretty explicit about what it wants and aims for.
I think the point I was trying to make is that it would do us good to try to go out there with a charitable mindset, look for the steelmanned versions of arguments being made, and try to engage them on their merits. For me this implies looking also in “unusual” or on the face of it “irritating” places and talking to people that hold different beliefs or work with different ideas, in particular if they are trying to reach out and engage with us. This happened to some degree here and all I am advocating for is keeping an open mind and not jumping to dismissive conclusions without deliberate critical engagement.

alexherwix 24 Sep 2023 15:26 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: harfe’s comment on: Pausing AI vs Degrowth in rich countries
I would argue that it is a snarky but honest reflection of my state of mind. I also support my claim with evidence if you continue to read the comment. I am walking a fine line but I think my comment should still pass as constructive and well-intentioned all things considered. If you beg to differ feel free to make your case.

alexherwix 24 Sep 2023 13:13 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: Davidmanheim’s comment on: Pausing AI vs Degrowth in rich countries
Wow, I am wondering whether to engage further or just let your reply stand as a testament to your “thoughtfulness”. Doubling down on stereotyping and mischaracterizing people… great job! (sorry for the sarcasm but I am STILL surprised when I encounter this type of behavior in the EA forum, probably a sign of my naivety...). Nevertheless, for the benefit of the people who are intimidated by this type of behavior, I will try to give a short outline on where you, at least in my opinion, go wrong.
First, you seem to be upset that some people believe the hypothesis that “it is possible to organize a transition and live well under a different political-economic system that has a radically smaller resource throughput” because there is no evidence for it. I get that this may be not something you want… from your perspective it may not be “desirable” at the moment but what is your evidence that this is “impossible” to realize or even “undesirable” for people in general? Do you have more than specious historical analogies that actually proof your point? No, you don’t because you can’t. This is a complex and nuanced question that requires critical engagement and empirical inquiry to be resolved. Nobody is forcing you to contribute to this project but advocating against resolving the issue through critical engagement actually requires critical engagement. Pick your poison.
Second, why on earth do you continue to make broad stereotypical and misrepresenting claims after you have been made aware of the fact that you are doing it? Do you believe that is conducive to a productive and good conversation or are there other reasons in play that I simply fail to apprehend in my naivety and ignorance? Just to illustrate my point, a couple of quotes and replies from my side:
they are opposed to mining more minerals, regardless of environmental damage, because they want less resource usage
You make it sound like people are against mining of minerals in general. This is not the case. Even people advocating for degrowth have understood that civilization requires mining and use of minerals. They just advocate for being mindful of how much minerals we actually need to mine and encourage reconsideration of how we approach resource extraction in general, from all else being equal “more is better” to “less is better”. Mind you that for most people this is also not a dogmatic position but a strategic position that is being taken on the margin in response to a (perceived) overweight of the “more is better” position. In the end, most people who advocate for degrowth now, would settle for a middle ground in the long run, where humanity is simply more mindful with regards to what it is doing. My circumstantial evidence for this is talking to people at academic sustainability conferences.
Yes, there are limits to growth, but they aren’t relevant. They are busy telling people energy is finite, so we should use less—ignoring the fact that energy can be plentiful with solar and other renewable sources.
When people are pointing to limits to growth as a problem, they tend to have a reason for doing so even if one disagrees with them. Figuring out who is right tends to involve debate and empirical inquiry but you again opt for the easy way out and strawman “their” position to prematurely close discussion. What people are pointing to when they say “energy is finite” is not that we could not create “Dyson spheres” sometime in the future but that in our current situation we are still very much dependent on fossil fuels, transitioning to renewables is itself energy and resource intensive, and we don’t want to burst our carbon budget while still enabling the Global South to continue its development. These are real issues that must be dealt with in the here and now. What is so wrong with thinking that encouraging Western countries (and their citizens; some degrowth advocates favor bottom-up approaches) to reconsider some of their basic assumptions about growth and prosperity and reduce their material footprint and consumption to help this process along could be part of the solution?
These are the same people—literally the same, in some cases—as the “limits to growth” folks from decades ago, and the fact that they were wrong hasn’t deterred them in the least. They are STILL telling people that we will run out of minerals, ignoring the fact that discoverable reserves are orders of magnitude larger than we need in the foreseeable future, and in most cases reserves have been getting larger over time.
You make it sound like it is a consensus that the “limits to growth” people have been wrong. I can tell you there are quite a few people who would beg to differ. If you would engage with the discourse and look at the data, it’s actually surprising how well the original study held up.
But don’t let this evidence fool you, your entire hypothesis that we theoretically have enough resource reserves that we can continue to plunder in our ongoing mindless quest for economic growth, (almost) proofs we have nothing to worry or just discuss about. Don’t let the fact that we are in an unprecedented situation where we are transitioning entire economies with enormous efforts that are going to take resource, energy, and time disturb you in your certainty and let’s simply not use this crisis situation as an opportunity to engage in deep reflection about the values and goals of the economic systems that we want to create as a result. Discussing about how we want to work together as humanity is overrated and not at all consequential for the long-run development of our species. That’s explicitly not what EA is supposed to be about. (Sorry, couldn’t resist the sarcasm, again)
If you are looking for some materials to further engage with these debates, I can recommend engaging with the academic literature but also other sources like Nate Hagens podcast. There are many people on there who talk about the very practical issues the degrowth people are concerned about and want to address. There is definitely more of value there than what you give it credit for and this is basically the whole reason that I am complaining so heavily about your style and behavior.
Please don’t just go around and attack and dunk on “niche” topics you haven’t taken the time to properly engage with. It’s fine to have (strong) opinions but be mindful of the effects the way you talk about things can have on other people and the community around you. The EA forum needs a diversity of voices and people should feel empowered to raise their (constructive, honest, etc.) points even if not everyone automatically gets their relevance. Constructive criticism and questions are fine and desired but misrepresentations are not. (I acknowledge that I myself am walking a fine line here… but somehow I think a sharp tone is still defensible in this case given the unfolding of the discussion)

alexherwix 24 Sep 2023 8:20 UTC
5 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Davidmanheim’s comment on: Pausing AI vs Degrowth in rich countries
I have to disclaim that I am NOT an expert on degrowth but from everything I know about the topic you are building up a huge strawman and misrepresenting their position in a way that really proves the point I was trying to make.
Just searching on google scholar for the term “degrowth” and looking at the first result, I come to an open access article “Research on Degrowth” in a reputable outlet with a reviewing discussion of the actual positions held and research being done on the topic. I have not read the entire article but from engaging with it for less than five minutes it’s clear that your simplified summary is inadequate.
Degrowth is a new term that signifies radical political and economic reorganization leading to drastically reduced resource and energy throughput. Related scholarship critiques the ideology behind the dogma of economic growth; contributes to documentation of negative material, social, and ecological effects of growth; and assesses alternatives to growth-based development (1). Put simply, the degrowth hypothesis is that it is possible to organize a transition and live well under a different political-economic system that has a radically smaller resource throughput.
Thus, the point the degrowth movement is concerned with is reducing resource and energy throughput and not stopping all forms of (technological) development. On the opposite, it is about being more mindful of what technologies we develop and how we put them into practice with the goal of needing a smaller resource throughput as a result. Or do you expect degrowth proponents to advocate against investing more into R&D of better solar panels and wind turbines? No, the whole point of degrowth is not to be against development but to change our conception of development so as to lead to an overall reduction (or at least stabilization) of resource and energy throughput. Lofty goals but same can be said for the whole AGI and existential risk shebang.
And I mean their point seems to be worthy of discussion as there are limits to growth as you acknowledge, and it seems not outlandish and to many people probably very reasonable to argue that we are approaching these limits as we have a created an economic system that has pushed us into the dangerous territory of our planetary boundaries.
Maybe you disagree about the degree to which we are in state of emergency or you are a techno-optimist who believes AGI will easily solve all “resource flow hiccups” we may be experiencing right now but this does NOT absolve you from doing a minimum of critical engagement with a case being made if you are to actively advocate against it. If the topic is not for you, fine. Stay out of it. But do not misrepresent the claims and case of people just because they have a different opinion from you.
P.S. sorry if this is a little bit harsh but this situation really captures a lot of what I am worried about with the EA forum. Stuff sometimes gets downvoted for specious reasons that are not grounded in any significant engagement with the topic but simply a “hot-take” that’s formed based on a different (often uninformed) starting point. This creates potentially specious filter bubbles similar to other social media. Shouldn’t this forum strive to do better than this?

alexherwix 23 Sep 2023 21:27 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: JBentham’s comment on: Should Effective Altruists be Valuists instead of utilitarians?
Being “agnostic” in all situations is itself a dogmatic position. It’s like claiming to be “agnostic” on every epistemic claim or belief. Sure, you can be, but some beliefs might be much more likely than others. I continue to consider the possibility that pleasure is not the only good; I just find it extremely unlikely. That could change.
If you read what I have written, you will see that I am not taking a dogmatic position but simply advocate for staying open-minded when approaching a situation. I tried to describe that as trying to be “agnostic” about the outcome of engaging with a situation. It’s not my goal to predict the outcome in advance but to work towards a satisfying resolution of the situation at hand. I would argue that this is the opposite of a dogmatic position but I acknowledge that my use of the term “agnostic” may have been confusing here.
Thank you as well, it was thought provoking and helped me reflect my own positions.

alexherwix 23 Sep 2023 20:22 UTC
1 point
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in reply to: JBentham’s comment on: Should Effective Altruists be Valuists instead of utilitarians?
As above, these conflicting intuitions can only be resolved through a process of reflection. I am glad that you support such a process. You seem disappointed that the result of this process has, for me, led to utilitarianism. This is not a “premature closing of this process” any more than your pluralist stance is a premature closing of this process. What we are both doing is going back and forth saying “please reflect harder”. I have sprinkled some reading recommendations throughout to facilitate this.
I am only disappointed if you stop reflecting and questioning your position based on the situations you find yourself in and start to pursue it as dogma that cannot be questioned. I don’t face the same concern as I am committed to continue on my open-minded and open-ended quest to better understand what it means to do good in particular situations and to act accordingly. In that sense, I am not “just” value pluralist nor a monist but agnostic as to what any particular situation may demand of me.
The post does not mention whether we have reasons to hold certain things dear. It actually rejects such a framing altogether, claiming that the idea that we “should” (in a reason-implying sense) hold certain things dear doesn’t make sense. This is tantamount to nihilism, in my view. The first two points, meanwhile, are psychological rather than normative claims. As Sidgwick stated, the point of philosophy is not to tell people what they do think, but what they ought to think.
Just because one is moral anti-realist doesn’t mean one is automatically a nihilist. The post argues for Valuism and suggests there can be more than moral reasons for acting such as biological or psychological reasons. One may even argue that these are primary. But I guess that’s bound to become too long of a conversation for this thread. I tried to make my case and I hope we both got something out of it.

alexherwix 23 Sep 2023 19:48 UTC
5 points
2 ∶ 1
in reply to: Ben Millwood’s comment on: Pausing AI vs Degrowth in rich countries
One caution I want to add here is that downvoting when a post is fresh / not popular can have strong filter effects and lead to premature muting of discussion. If the first handful of readers simply dislike a post and downvote it, this makes it much less likely for a more diverse crowd of people to find it and express their take on it. We should consider that there are many different viewpoints out there and that this is important for epistemic health. Thus, I encourage anyone to be mindful when considering to further downvote posts that are already unpopular.

alexherwix 23 Sep 2023 19:38 UTC
4 points
1 ∶ 0
in reply to: Ben Millwood’s comment on: Pausing AI vs Degrowth in rich countries
I think one point of this post is to challenge the community to engage more openly with the question of degrowth and to engage in argument rather than dismiss it outright. I have not followed this debate in detail but I sympathize with the take that issues which are controversial with EAs are often disregarded without due engagement by the community.