I think nuclear winters are now predicted to be much less severe than once feared. At least, that is what a very indepth EA forum post argues.
I think the finding points us toward being a bit more skeptical of the idea that some effective altruists seem to hold — that a nuclear war between the US and Russia would necessarily lead to a nuclear winter that posed a large risk of extinction.
FYI: I think there is a typo in your email. It should be gpr.meNtoring@gmail.com
FYI, I think one of your hyperlinks is linking to the wrong place.
In contrast, last month, Open Philanthropy published a report on the social returns to productivity growth,
I think that should instead link to: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/social-returns-to-productivity-growth/
“Conference” is widely used by the academic and professional community to describe these types of events. It doesn’t really have much baggage associated with it, and avoids much of the “vacation” connotation.
You may be interested in “How should Effective Altruists think about Leftist Ethics?” by AppliedDivinityStudies.
I am unsure of this myself. I’d suggest you contact the moderators by clicking the blue button in the bottom right of every page on this site. It looks like a speech bubble with a parenthesis in it.
Personally, when I say “AI Risk is not like Terminator”, I am trying to convey a couple of points:
The risk is from intelligence itself, not autonomous robot soldiers. You can’t make AI safer by avoiding the mistakes seen in the movies.
There will not be a robot war: we will “instantly” lose if non-aligned AI is created.
I think the average person has a misconception about “how” to respond to AI risk and also confuses robotics and AI. I think I agree with all the points you raise, but still feel that the meme “AI Risk is not like Terminator” is very helpful at addressing this problem.
Agreed on it not being disingenuous. If I gave someone money as a wedding present, I personally would not feel any expectation that they spend it in some particular manner.
Cal Newport frames this problem as the “hyperactive hive mind” in his book “A World Without Email”. He suggests that the solution is more structured communication, rather than ad hoc communication. Its lessons on email helped me a lot at work, so if this is a topic that bothers you too, I would suggest checking that book out.
The code worked for me. 🤷♂️
I used Randox because of social proof and price. Randox was listed by British Airways on this website was the cheapest on that website.
I don’t recommend using Day 2 tests for the return trip. Day 2 tests have to be mailed back to the lab. So it takes some days to get results. For the return flight, you need results back before you fly. So I would worry that I might not get results back in time for my flight.