This is great. I’m so glad this analysis has finally been done!
One quick idea: should ‘speed-ups’ be renamed ‘accelerations’? I think I’d find that clearer personally, and would help to disambiguate it from earlier uses of ‘speed-up’ (e.g. in Nick’s thesis).
Not sure I follow. Current market expectations for AI is that AI WON’T automate a large fraction of jobs. Rather just that it’ll produce value a few trillion dollars, which is only couple of percent of world GDP.
But even if AI does automate a lot of work, that doesn’t mean everyone is suddenly poor. If AI is valuable, then GDP will grow, which means there’s on net more money around to pay for AI software.