Bernadette_Young

Karma: 481

Parenthood and effective altruism

Bernadette_Young14 Apr 2014 1:28 UTC

28 points

26 comments11 min readEA link

Bernadette_Young 14 Apr 2014 13:01 UTC
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in reply to: Guest’s comment on: Parenthood and effective altruism
Thanks for your thoughtful response.
As a medical professional, as well as within my friendship group, I’ve actually had very extensive experience of people experiencing sub-fertility or infertility. On the basis of that experience I have quite a high prior for this statement. One friend, who underwent 3 years of testing and treatment before becoming pregnant described her feeling on being pregnant as ‘the first time in 3 years I haven’t felt sad, stressed and unhappy for every hour of the day’.
The essay cited seems to conclude that the literature reveals only ‘stress’ but not enough to result in a diagnosis of a psychiatric disorder. I would argue the levels of stress involved do not need to meet the criteria for major depression in order to have a significantly negative impact on one’s life and productivity. A more recent review of the literature (2007) suggests prevalence of depression and anxiety in patients seeking treatment for infertility that are 2 to 4 times the general population. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1521693406001611
Finally, one of the most pervasive emotions experience by people suffering sub-fertility or infertility is a sense of guilt and failure, even among those who know this rationally not to be the case. If you knew you had deliberately produced this difficulty, it seems reasonable to predict those feelings would be very much amplified.

Bernadette_Young 14 Apr 2014 13:22 UTC
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in reply to: Guest’s comment on: Parenthood and effective altruism
Thanks for your thoughtful response.
As a medical professional, as well as within my friendship group, I’ve actually had very extensive experience of people experiencing sub-fertility or infertility. On the basis of that experience I have quite a high prior for this statement. One friend, who underwent 3 years of testing and treatment before becoming pregnant described her feeling on being pregnant as ‘the first time in 3 years I haven’t felt sad, stressed and unhappy for every hour of the day’.
The essay cited seems to conclude that the literature reveals only ‘stress’ but not enough to result in a diagnosis of a psychiatric disorder. I would argue the levels of stress involved do not need to meet the criteria for major depression in order to have a significantly negative impact on one’s life and productivity. A more recent review of the literature (2007) suggests prevalence of depression and anxiety in patients seeking treatment for infertility that are 2 to 4 times the general population (with rates between 20 and 40% compared with 10%) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1521693406001611
Finally, one of the most pervasive emotions experience by people suffering sub-fertility or infertility is a sense of guilt and failure, even among those who know this rationally not to be the case. If you knew you had deliberately produced this difficulty, it seems reasonable to predict those feelings would be very much amplified.

Bernadette_Young 16 Apr 2014 0:14 UTC
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in reply to: Pablo_Stafforini2’s comment on: Parenthood and effective altruism
I’m not familiar with the theory behind the time value of money to appraise it, but it looks to me like your calculation here has taken my per parent figure and come out with a per couple figure, which (I’m sure unintentionally) makes it look at first read like my estimate is <50% of the true cost). But the figure of £4700 per couple is not wildly different from £4000 per couple per annum, given the uncertainty bounds I’d put on it.
Regarding the opportunity costs estimate here I’d dispute that figure with gusto. I think that estimate is inaccurate and probably inflated for two major reasons.
Firstly, I don’t think we have anything like the amount of certainty about that figure—at the very least it deserves some error bars! (Incidentally, I find this is a big problem with back-of-the-envelope calculations that come out with a single figure—the number looks much more authoritative than it should given the uncertainty regarding the factors behind it).
I was deliberately not specific as to the amount of the time cost involved because I was unable to find reliable data to make such an estimate. Brian’s essay does not provide any data from which he draws his estimate of 21 hours per week per parent in time opportunity costs (I think I am correct in believing he’s not a parent). He simply states it after a long list of the types of work that parenting involves. In his account, the following are ‘work’: “playing with your toddler…spending quality time with your kid on the weekends, taking your kid to events and friends’ houses, going to school functions…giving advice on jobs, and everything else in between.” I don’t dispute that some elements of parenting are straightforwardly work—probably unpleasant and with no immediate reward for the individual performing them. However to describe playing with your child, engaging in social activities or giving interested advice to a young person exploring future career options as ‘work’ is a little boggling to me. I suspect that for most people who would class these things as work, parenthood is unlikely to be an attractive prospect.
So I am sceptical of the apparently randomly drawn figure of the hours of work involved. Of course, I’m happy to report back with data on this in a few years.
Secondly (and this criticism also applies to Brian’s figure of 21 hours per parent per week even if it were accurate), I would dispute the assumption that each marginal hour of time can be spent in earning money at the same rate as your basic income.
Depending on your type of work, It may not be practically possible: In my case, though I can increase my earnings by taking on extra shifts, the number I can take is capped as I am not allowed to exceed a set number of hours of clinical duty per week (averaged over a period of time). In fact, just yesterday a colleague was reprimanded for having taken on locum shifts which meant he exceeded these hours, and he has had to come off the ‘on-call’ rota (with a concomitant salary cut) to allow the time to average out. For someone in a full-time salaried position (say a university research appointment), it’s not the case that working longer hours increases your pay. For most people in this position it’s unlikely to be the case that opportunities exist to find an extra 21 hours of paid work per week which will pay them at a professional wage.
In addition to the practical possibility there’s the psychological reality. I don’t know many people who can actually consistently and productively do paid work 50+ hours a week. I recall seeing data (on this blog) that suggested those who estimate their working hours much about the mid-40s were a) overestimating and b) no more productive than those who claimed to work fewer hours. Certainly at a population level an inverse relationship is observed between hours worked and productivity
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/09/working-hours.
So even we did work in careers that would theoretically allow us to increase our working hours by nearly 50 and be paid for it, I think it’s highly unlikely we would sustain that working pattern. (I’m sure some people can, I just know I’m not them!)

Bernadette_Young 16 Apr 2014 0:15 UTC
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in reply to: Julia_Wise2’s comment on: Parenthood and effective altruism
Thank you! I’m very much looking forward to sharing views on the topic in more detail with you in the summer.

Bernadette_Young 16 Apr 2014 0:19 UTC
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in reply to: Matt_in_AZ’s comment on: Parenthood and effective altruism
Thank you.
I think my reluctance to give a lot of argumentative weight to the benefits my child might add to the world come from how hard it is to be certain—at least from this end. I’m very much aware of being new to the parenting game with untested skills. Also, while both Toby and I have parents who feel strongly about justice and equality, and who almost certainly helped form us to who we are, we also have siblings who differ from us. I am trying not to have too specific a set of expectations for my child. However your daughter sounds like someone to be very proud of—congratulations, and well done!

Bernadette_Young 16 Apr 2014 0:23 UTC
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in reply to: Brian_Tomasik’s comment on: Parenthood and effective altruism
Absolutely it’s going to vary with individuals greatly. The irreversible nature of the decision (and with a limited reproductive lifespan the decision for women and stable couples is irreversible either way) certainly adds to the difficulty in appraising what is right for you as an individual. It’s quite difficult to study this, especially as most people will try to come to a position where they believe their decisions have been ‘for the best’, and so may downplay the degree of suffering not becoming a parent has involved for them.

Bernadette_Young 18 Sep 2014 14:25 UTC
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on: Supportive Scepticism
Great post Jess! I agree, it’s so important that we give each other positive feedback as well as criticism (constructive or otherwise). I suspect sometimes we feel it’s tougher, stronger or somehow virtuous not to need support, but for many people the need or desire for peer approval and support is a real one.

Bernadette_Young 18 Sep 2014 14:36 UTC
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on: Introduce Yourself
I’m Bernadette. Originally from Australia, I’m a medical doctor, training in Infectious Diseases. I’m currently on a break from clinical work to if a research fellowship and DPhil in the genetics of bloodstream infections with Staphylococcus aureus (a worldwide disease). I’m also currently on a break from my research fellowship to care for my baby daughter. I now live in Oxford with my husband Toby.

My interest in doing more good by giving, and the role we could all play in ending global poverty was kindled after reading One World by Peter Singer in 2002. Since I graduated in 2005 I’ve been giving at least 10% of my income and in 2009 I made the GWWC pledge.

Bernadette_Young 23 Oct 2014 11:55 UTC
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on: Should Giving What We Can change its Pledge?
It’s interesting that a number of people have said they would take the alternative pledge with the implication they won’t change their behaviour (ie they will take the enabled pledge if it reflects what they already do or plan to do). It seems to me then that including these members would therefore be of limited value in terms of money moved., though it would allow them to feel included in the gwwc community.

Weighing against this limited benefit is the risk of the amended pledge being less likely to attract new members for whom joining wild be a change of behaviour. As others have said, poverty is a cause well geared towards engaging people, and this has been vital for GWWC’s growth.

Additionally I’m worried that a watered down wording would risk a loss if focus and encourage people to take the pledge less seriously. In fact I am worried that good faith efforts to be inclusive in membership have already done so to some extent. Today on the Facebook group I read one member openly saying he doesn’t abide by the pledge and that he thinks that’s no problem, he doesn’t feel constrained by the ‘literal text’. Others are arguing we should amend the pledge should become cause agnostic because some members have joined with the sincere belief that x-risk or movement building charities are the best way to help those in extreme poverty.

Bernadette_Young 11 Nov 2014 11:37 UTC
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in reply to: Amanda_Jane’s comment on: Open Thread 4
Agreed! As well as a careful sampling plan, things to think about in advance are: how will your questions be tested (to make sure you are asking about the information you think you are asking about). To be rigorous, you should also have a pre-specified analysis plan, which includes what comparisons you are going to make, what tests are appropriate for the data set, and how big your sample needs to be to detect the difference you are interested in.

The planning and design of surveys is a whole area of study. I would suggest finding someone knowledgeable in it to help. It’s possible somebody studying a relevant subject might be able to get involved and help you as part of their coursework. (At Oxford University these things are taught in Health Sciences, and there are study design modules that have projects doing just that)

Bernadette_Young 11 Nov 2014 11:50 UTC
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in reply to: Toby_Ord’s comment on: Why is effective altruism new and obvious?
I think this was crucial.

For an analogously apparently obvious but relatively new concept see ‘Evidence Based Medicine’. Applying the results of rigorous research to guide clinical practice probably sounds blindingly obvious but only emerged in the latter part of the 20th century and was bitterly contested.

Bernadette_Young 15 Nov 2014 20:53 UTC
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on: Kidney donation is a reasonable choice for effective altruists and more should consider it
I think your Qaly estimate is too optimistic. Your survival data of 14 years comes from patients aged 45-49 on dialysis. This group will be relevantly and significantly different to the projected recipients aged 60-65. This group will have different causes for their ESRD, and type 2 diabetes will be a much bigger cause. I would expect this group to have much more mult-system morbidity, and their expected all cause mortality would therefore be higher. (As would immunosuppressive treatment related morbidity).

Re improved survival with living donors, is there enough data to support that for unrelated donors? I would expect improved immunological match from related donors would be an important confounder.

Bernadette_Young 16 Nov 2014 14:18 UTC
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in reply to: joshcmorrison’s comment on: Kidney donation is a reasonable choice for effective altruists and more should consider it
Here’s how you present the calculation
- average half life of graft is 14.1 years across all transplants (which I’ve confirmed is what your defence data is discussing)
- patients aged 60-65 on dialysis have life expectancy 5.2 years
- therefore patients aged 60-65 on dialysis will gain 8.9 years from transplant.
I think that’s implausible for the reasons above.

Bernadette_Young 24 Dec 2014 22:21 UTC
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on: How much does it cost to have a child?
Very interesting, thanks for sharing. At exactly the halfway point tomorrow, our first year experience is similar: our housing and furnishing costs have been low, feeding her has been nominally free so far (though you are right there is an increased grocery bill for the nursing mother!), and between hand me downs and gifts, we have only bought about 4 items of clothing! Travelling costs have been low - £90 for an ergobaby carrier was well spent as we haven’t needed a pram. We were handed down a car seat but got rid of our car as it wasn’t needed.

I’m not sure disposable nappies have been very costly: we spend about £15 a month by only buying when they are on special (which is about a third of the time). The laundry costs and initial outlay would have to be quite low to better this.

A few country specific differences arise for us. There are no insurance premiums or costs associated with her birth. I get free prescriptions and dental care during pregnancy and the first year of her life. In the UK we get £80 pcm in child benefit (this disappears if one of us earns over £50k). My paid maternity leave means the lost wages so far total £2400 post tax, this will increase to roughly £9k for the next six months. (Paid childcare would be cheaper if I returned to work now, but I’ve decided that since my return to work will be full time, it’s better to have another 6 months at home. ). This is a combination of employer maternity pay and a universal (statutory) one.

An aside: while those lost wages are in one sense a baby cost, I’m reluctant to tally them up that way mentally. Staying home with her has often been a joy for me, and has mentally rebooted me in unexpected ways. It’s kind of analogous to taking a sabbatical to mentally recuperate. I suspect this is the sort of thing that varies with the parent and also how easy going the child is, but it hadn’t struck me that way beforehand.

Bernadette_Young 7 Jan 2015 20:13 UTC
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in reply to: Robert_Wiblin’s comment on: The Outside Critics of Effective Altruism
One way we can invite constructive criticism is by our response to criticisms we receive. That’s difficult for an amorphous ‘group’, but perhaps some invited posts on the forum trying yo vine to grips with these? Perhaps CEA could publish their current thinking on areas where they have encountered criticism (both from ‘inside’ and ‘outside’ the organisation)?

Bernadette_Young 8 Jan 2015 20:12 UTC
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in reply to: Dale’s comment on: Blind Spots: Compartmentalizing
Having experienced (a comparatively smooth and uncomplicated) pregnancy and delivery, ‘discomfort’ feels wildly inadequate.

For example, rates of post partum depression are about 10%, higher in adverse circumstances. Depression is one illness where a person’s QALY’s are plausibly <0

As well as being woefully inadequate to describe what’s involved physically, the analysis here doesn’t address the other harms and distress that would be involved in term pregnancy, delivery and relinquishing of a child. The woman’s family, personal and work-life would all be affected in difficult to predict and probably negative ways. For example, what if you are a casual worker with no maternity allowance? Almost certainly lose shifts as you get more pregnant, probably lose your job.

Bernadette_Young 12 Jan 2015 9:29 UTC
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on: The Outside Critics of Effective Altruism
I’ve recently been considering the analogy between Effective Altruism and the movement towards Evidence Based Medicine. The strongest similarity is that they both seek to use the conscientious application of high quality evidence to guide decision making. EBM has been criticised extensively, and many of its critics care deeply about the ‘project’ of medicine. It strikes me that these critiques could provide useful points to consider for EA. Maybe gathering and considering these would be a useful project for a CEA intern or similar.

Bernadette_Young 13 Jan 2015 20:56 UTC
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in reply to: alice’s comment on: Risky Giving
Do you mean this literally? It seems to have normal paragraph breaks and spacing on my viewer.

Bernadette_Young 15 Jan 2015 11:23 UTC
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in reply to: Dale’s comment on: The Privilege of Earning To Give
In respect to politeness and avoiding hostile conversation, you might reconsider your post here. Plenty of people in this community would probably fit the label ‘social justice warrior’ (like the term political correctness before it, this term seems to be used to dismiss wholesale people whose only distinguishing feature is advocating people not being dicks to each other). It’s disappointing to read something in this forum where I find myself labelled unfit for association.

Bernadette_Young

Par­ent­hood and effec­tive altruism

Parenthood and effective altruism