I agree that animal feed may influence the chance of collapse, but I again think this will be negligible given high expected animal product consumption pre-AGI and the much smaller human population.
I certainly agree that we should not act as if we are sure, but I also think that saying we are completely “clueless” or “don’t know” is also inaccurate. We should of course take these considerations seriously, and think about them carefully and try to get more information about them (and to be clear, I also discount the climate-related worries for the possibility of AGI arriving before then).
Thank you for this. I particularly appreciated the “counterarguments” and “anti-claims” sections, which I felt accurately represented the views of those of us who disagree.
One further counterargument I’d mention, to balance out the point you make about honesty, is that it also feels potentially dicey/dishonest to be gaming out ways of how to get people to do things we want, on grounds we don’t ourselves find to be the most compelling. To be clear, I think there is a good way of going about this, which involves being honest about our views while making it clear that we’re trying to appeal to people of different persuasions.