JoshuaBlake

Karma: 1,265

I am an (almost finished) PhD student in biostatistics and infectious disease modelling (population-level); my research focuses on Bayesian statistical methods to produce improved estimates of the number of new COVID-19 infections. During the pandemic, I was a member of SPI-M-O (the UK government committee providing expert scientific advice based on infectious disease modelling and epidemiology).

I enjoy applying my knowledge broadly, including to models of future pandemics, big picture thinking on pandemic preparedness, and forecasting.

JoshuaBlake 20 Feb 2023 21:38 UTC
208 points
96 ∶ 3
on: EV UK board statement on Owen’s resignation
Am I right in thinking that, if it weren’t for the Time article, there’s no reason to think that Owen would ever have been investigated and/or removed from the board?
What links here?
- Things that can make EA a good place for women by lilly (6 Apr 2023 17:09 UTC; 182 points)

Malaria vaccine R21 is pre-qualified

JoshuaBlake22 Dec 2023 8:49 UTC

59 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

JoshuaBlake 28 Dec 2023 18:27 UTC
56 points
5 ∶ 0
on: Zach Robinson will be CEA’s next CEO
What would be the best thing(s) to read for those of us who know ~nothing about Zach and his views/philosophy?

JoshuaBlake 13 Dec 2023 17:05 UTC
52 points
16 ∶ 1
in reply to: Vaipan’s comment on: Nonlinear’s Evidence: Debunking False and Misleading Claims
I down voted because it isn’t directly relevant to the dispute. High-spending in longtermist EA communities is a question that has been frequently discussed on this forum without consensus views. I don’t think restarting that argument here is productive.

JoshuaBlake 23 Sep 2022 15:55 UTC
51 points
32 ∶ 0
in reply to: Guy Raveh’s comment on: My Personal Story of Rejection from EA Global
I think it’s hard to maintain that you’re not trying to represent the movement if you call your event “Effective Altruism Global” and own/run effectivealtruism.com

Forecasting accidentally-caused pandemics

JoshuaBlake17 Jan 2024 19:36 UTC

48 points

4 comments4 min readEA link

(blog.joshuablake.co.uk)

JoshuaBlake 27 Aug 2023 13:47 UTC
46 points
19 ∶ 4
in reply to: Max H’s comment on: Eliezer Yudkowsky Is Frequently, Confidently, Egregiously Wrong
I don’t think you’ve summarised the LessWrong comments well. Currently, they don’t really engage with the substantive content of the post and/or aren’t convincing to me. They spend a lot of time criticising the tone of the post. The comments here by Dr. David Mathers are a far better critique than anything on LessWrong.

I do agree that the post title goes too far compared to what is actually argued.

Also, the writing here seems much more like it is deliberately engineered to get you to believe something (that Eliezer is bad) than anything Eliezer has ever actually written. If you initially found such arguments convincing, consider examining whether you have been “duped” by the author.

This paragraph seems in bad faith without substantiating, currently it’s just vague rhetoric. What do you mean by “deliberately engineered to get you to believe something”? That sounds to me like a way of framing “making an argument” to sound malicious.

JoshuaBlake 20 Feb 2023 21:46 UTC
41 points
46 ∶ 58
on: EV UK board statement on Owen’s resignation
The EA forum, run by CEA, choosing to hide community posts from the front page just before news breaks that reflects badly on CEA and its parent organisation, is not a good look. I’m not suggesting that there is any foul play here but it would be a positive nice if some way to highlight this issue was found. CEA should be going be doing everything possible to reassure that they are maximizing transparency and accountability here.

JoshuaBlake 22 Mar 2023 8:02 UTC
33 points
3 ∶ 0
on: Design changes & the community section (Forum update March 2023)
Have you considered A/B testing changes? As you note, looking at engagement numbers before/after isn’t capable of assigning causality.

JoshuaBlake 14 Feb 2024 8:27 UTC
31 points
14 ∶ 0
on: FTX expects to return all customer money; clawbacks may go away
Bear in mind that even if FTX can pay everyone back now, that does not mean they were solvent at the point they were put into bankruptcy.

JoshuaBlake 27 Apr 2023 8:32 UTC
30 points
20 ∶ 3
in reply to: Lorenzo Buonanno’s comment on: The ‘Wild’ and ‘Wacky’ Claims of Karnofsky’s ‘Most Important Century’
I agree about your biorisk point. However, tagging community has the additional effect of greatly reducing visibility which is fine when the content is primarily about the community but not here where the community aspect is a collary to the main point critiquing a fundamental text in EA thinking.

JoshuaBlake 8 Mar 2023 7:36 UTC
21 points
12 ∶ 1
on: Suggestion: A workable romantic non-escalation policy for EA community builders
Really good to see some concrete suggestions and experiences, thank you for sharing

JoshuaBlake 27 Aug 2023 15:53 UTC
20 points
5 ∶ 0
on: How much do EAGs cost (and why)?
How much above the catering minimum spend are EAGs? What would spending the minimum look like?

Non-EA conferences I attend (academic ones mostly) typically don’t have any food or drink except lunch, coffee, and maybe some biscuits. If you want more food than that you (as an attendee) bring it with, which is clearly much cheaper because it isn’t ridiculously marked-up.

JoshuaBlake 13 Dec 2023 16:43 UTC
19 points
11 ∶ 3
in reply to: Muireall’s comment on: Nonlinear’s Evidence: Debunking False and Misleading Claims
Very valuable contribution. Crowd sourcing this type of effort seems good.

JoshuaBlake 14 Jun 2023 10:50 UTC
19 points
4 ∶ 0
on: Lightcone Infrastructure/LessWrong is looking for funding
What’s the counterfactual impact of that $3-6M? Would you have to cut some of the activities you mentioned without it? Is this money to expand to be activities? Something else?

Cost-effective pandemic preparedness

JoshuaBlake21 Dec 2023 17:06 UTC

17 points

4 comments8 min readEA link

(blog.joshuablake.co.uk)

JoshuaBlake 14 Dec 2023 6:57 UTC
17 points
1 ∶ 0
on: AMA: Founder and CEO of the Against Malaria Foundation, Rob Mather
How does the availability of malaria vaccines change AMF’s strategy going forward?

JoshuaBlake 1 Sep 2023 15:38 UTC
16 points
5 ∶ 1
in reply to: SummaryBot’s comment on: Learning from our mistakes: how HLI plans to improve
I’ve not seen this feature before but it looks awesome! If testing goes well, it would be really cool to integrate it more fully (eg: allow post author’s to put this executive summary at the top of their post).

JoshuaBlake 5 Mar 2023 7:59 UTC
16 points
29 ∶ 7
in reply to: Ofer’s comment on: Nick Bostrom should step down as Director of FHI
I agree that this is an unfair claim but the post wouldn’t lose much force without it

JoshuaBlake 8 Sep 2023 21:05 UTC
15 points
2 ∶ 0
in reply to: Nathan Young’s comment on: An Incomplete List of Things I Think EAs Probably Shouldn’t Do

Promote stimulant use can be fine in some cases—eg “have you considered getting an ADHD diagnosis, maybe try mine for a day and see how you feel”

Wouldn’t this be illegal? In which case, I think it’s pretty clearly at least a risk.

JoshuaBlake

Malaria vac­cine R21 is pre-qualified

Fore­cast­ing ac­ci­den­tally-caused pandemics

Cost-effec­tive pan­demic preparedness

Malaria vaccine R21 is pre-qualified

Forecasting accidentally-caused pandemics

Cost-effective pandemic preparedness