This is fair. I got a little sloppy with my language there, but elsewhere I note that Bostrom is arguing for this state “pro-tanto” not “all things considered.” My reading is that the panopticon proposal is mostly a rhetorical strategy to give a concrete image of what the massive expected values of existential risk might justify.
I still think that his narrow claim is wrong though. “Mass surveillance would be necessary given “a biotechnological black ball that is powerful enough that a single malicious use could cause a pandemic that would kill billions of people.”
Even in the conditional world where the deadly pandemic exists, mass surveillance is only good if it is used to actually stop the pandemic and does not cause more harm afterwards. I don’t think either of these things are very likely if they’re attached to any form of government we’re familiar with. Mass surveillance isn’t even necessary, it’s just one possible technological solution to a bio-tech black ball. Really good vaccines or PPE or genetic improvements to the immune system would also suffice.
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