There are a couple of sources which I’d recommend taking a look at.
2015 Climate Change Risk Assessment—particularly worth reading the section which includes the quote “A simple conclusion is that we need to know more about the impacts associated with higher degrees of temperature increase. But in many cases this is difficult. For example, it may be close to impossible to say anything about the changes that could take place in complex dynamic systems, such as ecosystems or atmospheric circulation patterns, as a result of very large changes very far into the future.”
Climate change risk assessment 2021 - conclusion starts out by saying “Unless NDCs are dramatically increased, and policy and delivery mechanisms commensurately revised, many of the climate change impacts described in this paper are likely to be locked in by 2040, and become so severe they go beyond the limits of what nations can adapt to.” Section 4 of this paper considers various cascading systemic risks. These are a big part of what makes predicting the future impacts of climate change so hard.
I just wanted to leave a quick note to thank you for writing such a thoughtful and well researched piece on this important topic ❤️