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Metaculus

Karma: 292

Strat­egy Ad­vice from AI Fore­cast­ing Bot Mak­ers (Spring 2026)

Benjamin Wilson 🔸9 Sep 2026 14:57 UTC
4 points
0 comments13 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

What AI Fore­cast­ing Strat­egy Works Best? (Spring 2026 Sur­vey Anal­y­sis)

Benjamin Wilson 🔸9 Sep 2026 14:56 UTC
3 points
0 comments10 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Fu­tureE­val Spring Re­sults: Pros Beat Bots, but the Gap is Nearly Gone

Benjamin Wilson 🔸9 Sep 2026 14:53 UTC
8 points
0 comments20 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

AI Fore­cast­ing in 2026: What 11 Analy­ses Say

Benjamin Wilson 🔸8 Jul 2026 14:33 UTC
10 points
0 comments17 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Q2 AI Bench­mark Re­sults: Pros Main­tain Clear Lead

Benjamin Wilson 🔸28 Oct 2025 5:13 UTC
55 points
0 comments24 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Q1 AI Bench­mark­ing Re­sults: Hu­man Pros Crush Bots

Benjamin Wilson 🔸28 Jun 2025 17:22 UTC
16 points
0 comments22 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Con­fer­ence Re­port: Thresh­old 2030 - Model­ing AI Eco­nomic Futures

Deric Cheng24 Feb 2025 18:57 UTC
24 points
0 comments10 min readEA link
(www.convergenceanalysis.org)

Me­tac­u­lus Q4 AI Bench­mark­ing: Bots Are Clos­ing The Gap

Molly Hickman19 Feb 2025 22:46 UTC
42 points
8 comments13 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing In­dexes: Big Ques­tions, Quantified

Molly Hickman27 Jan 2025 17:42 UTC
44 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

An­nual AGI Bench­mark­ing Event

Metaculus26 Aug 2022 21:31 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Pre­dict­ing Poly­genic Selec­tion for IQ

Metaculus28 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC
41 points
4 comments20 min readEA link

Rus­sia-Ukraine Con­flict: Fore­cast­ing Nu­clear Risk in 2022

Metaculus24 Mar 2022 21:03 UTC
23 points
1 comment12 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing Nu­clear Risk Through Im­proved US-China Relations

Metaculus21 Mar 2022 11:50 UTC
31 points
19 comments5 min readEA link

900+ Fore­cast­ers on Whether Rus­sia Will In­vade Ukraine

Metaculus19 Feb 2022 13:29 UTC
51 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(metaculus.medium.com)