retired president of lse ea with overly contrarian takes and hopes to get some attention
meugen
Karma: 50
These are great thoughts, thank you so much for the comment Eli!
Also, we are not a hedge—we are a causal AI research lab!!! For now. Associated with hedgefund maynardmetrics.com :)
I have a challenge to write 10 whitepapers by the end of the week to apply to YC. It is indeed not a rigorous proof—thus why it’s called a whitepaper :) However, I thought it is interesting enough that it is worth sharing. And the “overconfident lingo” is because the post is fully written by AI—still I believe people would prefer interesting AI slop to confusing mathematical paper. Thank you for your feedback though!
Nice to hear from you, Noah! one can be inclined to say something like “I’m an actor, so I don’t have to do any of the accuracy-based forecasting, etc,” which I think is definitely wrong. totally agree
One should choose which direction they act based on some somewhat accuracy/EV + vibes. Otherwise, there are infinite ways to act and most of them, without any foresight, fail even with the type of agency you’re describing. lets write something on bounded rationality together
In addition, once you are in the project you are acting in, you (ofc) shouldn’t constantly be doing the accuracy/EV thing. Sometimes, though, it’s probably worth taking a step back and doing it to consider opportunity cost (on some marked date every x amount of time to avoid decision/acting paralysis). agree
i am solving art market today! lets chat https://www.twitch.tv/meugenn1924
Rational Overconfidence: Why “Good Judgment” Fails Strategy
On different discussion traditions
I’m visiting Mexico City, anyone I should meet / anyone would like to meet up?
About me: Ex President LSE EA, doing work in global health, prediction markets, AIS.https://eshcherbinin.notion.site/me
Reducing x risk is much less tractable than EAs think
My take on AI risk (7 theses of eugene)
On AI alarmists:
A fair-sized stream seems vast to one who until then
Has never seen a greater; so with trees, with men.
In every field each man regards as vast in size
The greatest objects that have come before his eyes
(Lucretius)
meugen’s Quick takes
My critique of forecasting and rationality communities can be summed up as “penny wise, pound foolish”. And this approach to thinking can be automated by AI, as opposed to more unstructured software thinking
It is worthwhile if you have the skill to quickly formulate thoughts clearly, but I don’t think the forum develops this skill well
When you should not write on the EA Forum
@Sam Glover sent you an email!
Oh that’s very helpful, thank you very much for offering your support :)
Thank you Kyle! I haven’t come across some of the resources you sent and will definitely look into them. Thanks for the time you spent looking into it :)
Oh, that’s a very interesting idea! I knew about Emergent Ventures but never thought of applying. Will definitely give it a try!
Cant agree more with a caveat—you wont raise others’ ambitions by telling them so. You need to show them by your own actions + literally take them by hand and bring them to high ambition opportunities. This is the main contribution of EA to society imo