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Nathan Young

Karma: 15,020

Create prediction markets and forecasting questions on AI risk and biorisk. I also work part-time at a prediction market.

Use my connections on Twitter to raise the profile of these predictions and increase the chance that decision-makers discuss these issues.

Be More Katja

Nathan Young11 Mar 2024 21:12 UTC
34 points
18 comments1 min readEA link

The World in 2029

Nathan Young2 Mar 2024 18:03 UTC
88 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Works in Progress: The Long Jour­ney to Do­ing Good Bet­ter by Dustin Moskovitz [Linkpost]

Nathan Young14 Feb 2024 19:43 UTC
118 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(medium.com)

An Effec­tive Altru­ist’s guide to the holi­day season

Nathan Young23 Dec 2023 17:19 UTC
11 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

[Question] What are the biggest con­ceiv­able wins for an­i­mal welfare by 2025?

Nathan Young10 Dec 2023 11:42 UTC
33 points
6 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions: What do you want to pre­dict on AI?

Nathan Young1 Nov 2023 13:16 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Let’s cel­e­brate some wins

Nathan Young31 Oct 2023 10:43 UTC
37 points
12 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Should Twit­ter have pre­dic­tion mar­kets in Com­mu­nity Notes?

Nathan Young20 Oct 2023 12:27 UTC
17 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Should we push for a rapid malaria vac­cine rol­lout?

Nathan Young13 Oct 2023 14:56 UTC
50 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How much is a plan change worth and how much does it cost to achieve?

Nathan Young27 Sep 2023 17:01 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

A List of Things EAs should and shouldn’t do, at­tempt 2.1

Nathan Young16 Sep 2023 11:11 UTC
60 points
26 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Whose ac­tions are you thank­ful for?

Nathan Young7 Sep 2023 16:37 UTC
43 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Which or­gani­sa­tion is most effec­tive for the the marginal $ right now? (your opinions)

Nathan Young26 Aug 2023 11:03 UTC
31 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

Quick pro­posal: De­ci­sion mar­ket re­grantor us­ing man­i­fund (please im­prove)

Nathan Young9 Jul 2023 12:49 UTC
23 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

EA Strat­egy Fort­night Sur­fac­ing Poll (89 re­sponses so far)

Nathan Young19 Jun 2023 17:10 UTC
17 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

It is good for EA fun­ders to have seats on boards of orgs they fund [de­bate]

Nathan Young25 May 2023 13:50 UTC
37 points
15 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Who does work you are thank­ful for?

Nathan Young23 May 2023 14:03 UTC
56 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

Graph­i­cal Rep­re­sen­ta­tions of Paul Chris­ti­ano’s Doom Model

Nathan Young7 May 2023 13:03 UTC
48 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

AI risk/​re­ward: A sim­ple model

Nathan Young4 May 2023 19:12 UTC
37 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

[Question] But what has EA done? A call for ac­cu­rate sound­bites.

Nathan Young23 Apr 2023 18:38 UTC
17 points
38 comments1 min readEA link