Weirdly aggressive reply.
First of all, the AI 2027 people disagree about the numbers. Lifland’s median is nearer to 2031. I have a good amount of uncertainty, so I wouldn’t be shocked if, say, we don’t get the intelligence explosion for a decadeish.
“you’ve predicted a 95-trillion-fold increase in AI research capacity under a ‘conservative scenario.’” is false. I was just giving that as an example of the rapid exponential growth.
So the answer, in short, is that I’m not very confident in extremely rapid growth within the next few years. I’d probably put +10% GDP growth by 2029 below 50%.
Note the U.S. hasn’t had 10+% GDP growth since the great depression. But yeah I’d be happy to take some bets about this—north of 5% for instance.