Hi Dusten,
Will this yacht replace the Empress of the Seas cruise ship grant, planned to house the new headquarters of Open Philanthropy 2? Unlike the original cruise ship design, I’m highly skeptical that a yacht will be large enough of a headquarters to house the top-performing 50% of EA.
Can you go into more detail about this? Utilitarians and other people with logically/intellectually precise worldviews seem to be pretty consistently against human extinction; whereas average people with foggy worldviews tend to randomly flip in various directions depending on what hot takes they’ve recently read.
Most human extinction radicals seem to emerge completely seperate from the EA movement and never intersect with it, e.g. AI scientists who believe in human extinction. If people like Tomasik or hÉigeartaigh ever end up pro-extinction, it’s probably because they recently did a calculation that flipped them to prioritize s-risk over x-risk, but sign uncertainty and error bars remain more than sufficiently wide to keep them in their network with their EV-focused friends (at minimum, due to the obvious possibility of doing another calculation that flips them right back).
Wasn’t the default explanation that SBF/FTX had a purity spiral with no checks and balances, and combined with the high uncertainty of crypto trading, SBF became psychologically predisposed to betting all of EA on his career instead of betting his career on all of EA? Powerful people tend to become power seeking and that’s a pretty solid prior in most cases.