Now: TYPE III AUDIO; Independent study.
Previously: 80,000 Hours (2014-15; 2017-2021) Worked on web development, product management, strategy, internal systems, IT security, etc. Read my CV.
Also: Inbox When Ready; Radio Bostrom; The Valmy; Comment Helper for Google Docs.
I am worried and sad for all involved, but I am especially concerned for the wellbeing and prospects of the ~millions of people—often vulnerable retail investors—who may have taken on too much exposure to crypto in general.
Many people like this must be extremely stressed right now. As with many financial meltdowns, some individuals and families will endure severe hardship, such as the breakdown of relationships, the loss of life savings, even the death of loved ones.
I don’t really follow crypto so I know roughly nothing about the role SBF, FTX and Alameda have played in this ecosystem. My impression is that they’ve been ok/good on at least some dimensions of protecting vulnerable investors. But—let’s see how things look, overall, when the dust settles.
In my view, Bostrom’s email would have been offensive in the 90s and it is offensive now, for good reason.
Agree.
Bostrom’s apology is defensively couched—emphasising the age of the email, what others wrote on the listserv, that it would be best forgotten, that fear that people might smear him. I think that is cowardly and shows a disappointing lack of ownership of his actions.
I think these details are important context. I disagree with the final sentence.
When you are willfully disengaged from the empathy that underlies common decency
I don’t see grounds for describing Bostrom in such harsh terms.
Some context:
Bostrom’s problematic email was written in 1996.
Bostrom claims to have apologised for the email back in 1996, within 24 hours after sending it. If that’s right, then the 2023 message is his second apology.
I am disappointed that the CEA statement does not include these details.
While I appreciate posts like this, which speak about the importance of epistemic integrity, it seems to miss the fact that applauding someone for not lying is great but not if the belief they’re holding is bad.
It is suggestive that you describe the belief as “bad” rather than “wrong”,”incorrect” or “false”.
It’s fine to criticise people for (i) holding beliefs that are wrong, or for (ii) expressing beliefs that are probably best not expressed in a given context (whether they are true or false).
But it’s important to separate, as best we can, claims about (a) whether a particular belief is true from claims about (b) whether holding that belief has good consequences, or (c) correlates with good moral character.
This post would be better if it made this distinction more clearly.
I am grateful to SBF and all the FTX Future Fund team and donors, and especially the people who made the Regrantor Program happen.
I estimate ~70% chance I wouldn’t have begun work on Radio Bostrom or The Derek Parfit Archive if I didn’t know I could probably secure funding from a regrantor with an hour or two of work and 1-3 days of calendar time.
It was also great that when I ran into people I thought would be worth funding, it was super easy to ask them to write a one pager and then share it with regrantors I thought might be keen to recommend a grant. I did this three times over the past couple months and all three were funded within days.
Generally I’m finding the existence of the Regrantor Program incredibly enabling while I’m thinking about small pilot projects I might take a crack at, or bumping into cool people who I might want to help. I hope it continues in some form!
Thank you for posting this.
I roughly share the views you expressed here.
As you intended, the post is a valuable counterbalance to some of the other discussion.
Yep, I would emphasise “most” in my post above.
My guess is that if we talked about specifically who should follow this, we’d end up agreeing that >90% of readers of this thread should largely ignore for now. I vaguely recall that some 5000 people read the forum every week.
I do think that one person from each major EA org should be following along, and providing regular updates to their team for reasons of morale and (e.g.) suggestions on how to approach social media and the enquiries from journalists that we might expect to receive.
I also think that one person (from CEA) should be point person on this and put together a small team to support them, consult stakeholders, etc, if necessary.
FWIW I called around a bit last night and my understanding is that there is a very competent “point person”, and I am satisfied that they and the small group supporting them will help the community navigate this in a good/excellent way over the next days and weeks.
Back to work (nearly) everyone! :)
Andrew Leigh (Australian MP) has a 2021 book called What’s the Worst That Could Happen?.
The book blurb starts as follows:
Did you know that you’re more likely to die from a catastrophe than in a car crash? The odds that a typical US resident will die from a catastrophic event—for example, nuclear war, bioterrorism, or out-of-control artificial intelligence—have been estimated at 1 in 6. That’s fifteen times more likely than a fatal car crash and thirty-one times more likely than being murdered. In What’s the Worst That Could Happen?, Andrew Leigh looks at catastrophic risks and how to mitigate them, arguing provocatively that the rise of populist politics makes catastrophe more likely.
I think most people reading this thread should totally ignore this story for at least 2 weeks. Meantime: get back to work.
For >90% of readers, I suspect:
It’s not action relevant right now.
It’s very distracting.
It would be better to just read a sober update on the situation in a couple of weeks from now, after dust has settled.
I think this is true even of most people who have a bunch of crypto and/or are FTX customers, but that’s more debatable and depends on exposure.
These are the standard problems with following almost any BREAKING NEWS story (e.g. an election night, a stock market event, an ongoing tragedy).
Agree, but still find it hard to stop watching? You are glued to your screen and this is unhelpful. This is an opportunity to practice the skill of ignoring stuff that isn’t action-relevant, and allocating your attention effectively.
Not actively trading crypto or related assets? Just ignore this story for a while, and get back to work.
Added 2022-11-09 2200 GMT:
If I had a good friend who has a lot of crypto and who may be concerned about losing more than they can afford to lose, I would call them.
Given what I’m seeing online, the situation looks grim for people with big exposure to crypto in general, and those with deposits at FTX in particular.
(To repeat what I said in other comments on this post: I don’t follow crypto closely. My takes are not investment advice.)